Speculations Form as Market Awaits Release of On Feed Report, Expectations Hinge on MarketingsWed, 22 Aug 2018 11:20:16 CDT
The number of cattle in our feedlots continue to grow. Experts are expecting to see that trend continue in USDA’s next Cattle on Feed report due for release this coming Friday afternoon, along with larger placement and marketing numbers compared to a year ago. Extension Livestock Market Economist Lee Schulz of Iowa State University says he believes the marketing number will be the most important data point to come out of this report.
“If there’s any real surprises in this report, I think it’s going to be that marketing number, because supplies are building right now,” he said. “So, if that does or doesn’t stay relatively high - we’re likely to see this as a very bearish report. I’m looking at that marketing number as an indication of how current we are in this market. That’s going to be a real barometer of what’s going to affect this market for the next six weeks or so.”
As Schulz implies, one of the keys to feedlots’ success in 2017 and what is being observed to some degree here in 2018, is their ability to stay current. This will be especially important for feeders here in the latter days of this year as they deal with larger market-ready or soon to be market-ready supplies. Schulz says whatever this next report reveals, probably won’t change that fact. Other analysts, though, are focusing on other factors. Allendale’s Rich Nelson, for example, says placements in this report could potentially show as much as an 8.7 percent year-over-year increase. If realized, that would be the largest July placement number in six years and mark three months in a row that placements have ticked higher, despite concerns over profitability.
According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg for their pre-report expectations, the average guess is that this report will show cattle on feed for August 1 is 4.4 percent bigger than one year ago at just over 11 million head. Analysts guess placements in July will increase by 5.9 percent and marketings are estimated to rise by 5 percent year-over-year. USDA will release the report this Friday, August 24th at 2:00 p.m. Central Standard Time.
Listen to Schulz share his predictions for the upcoming USDA Cattle on Feed Report for Aug. 1, with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays, on today’s Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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