Allendale Predicts Largest September Placements in Seven Years for Upcoming On Feed ReportTue, 16 Oct 2018 15:58:50 CDT
The following are our estimates for the coming Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports:
September Placements are expected 0.2% over last year at 2.154 million head. This is the largest September placement in seven years. It would also mark five months in a row of higher than last year placements. High placements have been seen despite profitability concerns. Kansas State estimates a $110 loss per head on finished cattle in September. First half 2019 marketings are slated for $122 - $125 breakevens. August placements determine a part of the March through early August beef supply.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total in September at 0.7% under last year for a total of 1.771 million. This is the lowest September marketing in three years. There was a calendar adjustment due to September 2018 holding one less weekday and the same Saturdays as September 2017.
Total Cattle on Feed as of October 1 comes to 5.9% over last year at 11.446 million. That is a record October 1 total since the 1996 start of the current data-series. Record COF is noted for three months in a row now.
Allendale projects a 591 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of September. The five-year average is 607 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 8 million lb. from the previous month.
The five-year average month to month change for September is a 21 million lb. increase. Beef stocks, at 537 million lbs., are over the five-year average of 467. This month’s estimate represents an increase of 34 million lbs. from the previous month. The five-year average for this month is a 27 million lb. increase.
Source - Allendale, Inc.
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