The USDA released the latest Grain Stocks and Acreage reports on Friday, June 28, 2024. Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays is talking with Allendale’s Rich Nelson about key takeaways from both reports.
Starting with acreage numbers for the spring planted crops, Nelson said 1.4 million acres was added to the prior estimate of planted acres of corn in March- now at 91.5 million acres. Nelson said Soybeans were lowered from the March estimate, now at 86.1 million acres.
A minor change was seen in planted acres of wheat, Nelson said, down about 258,000 acres from the prior March survey.
“Overall, a little surprise for the corn,” Nelson said. “Soybean and wheat numbers were relatively okay.”
Nelson noted that the planting pace as of June 1st for corn and soybeans does not match up well with the changes seen in the latest acreage report.
“Oftentimes, we do get some dramatic surprises which are a bit unknown,” Nelson said. “Let us also make a second point- we won’t get the most accurate numbers until we incorporate those farm program acreage numbers in the August or October timeframe.”
Regarding the quarterly grain stocks report, Nelson said the numbers released in the latest report represent usage after three-quarters of usage for corn and soybeans. Nelson added the report also “puts the stamp” on old crop ending stocks for wheat.
“As far as numbers here today, corn old crop stocks were just about 5 billion bushels,” Nelson said. “This was higher than the trade estimate and would have implied maybe a little weaker feed residual usage in this past quarter.”
Nelson said numbers for soybeans were relatively close to trade expectations at 972 million bushels and there were no surprises regarding general usage this past quarter.
“We did have a small surprise for the wheat side,” Nelson said. “Wheat was 702 million bushels for old crop stocks. This would imply maybe a bit weaker feed usage and feed residual than we expected to see, so a little surprise for corn and wheat on this report”
On the corn side, Nelson said the numbers do not include the ten weeks of relatively good sales in recent weeks. Those sales will be shipped in the current fourth quarter period, Nelson added.
“We will have a little positive discussion for corn exports by the end of the year,” Nelson said.
Looking at weak sales on the soybean side, Nelson said there is concern that fourth-quarter sales for soybeans might be a problem.
“Keep in mind that with Brazil’s price discount, which does extend into the new crop year, we do have some moderate concerns there,” Nelson said.
Overall, Nelson said the quarterly grain stocks report brings a few challenges to light for those producers of spring-planted crops, as many have been waiting for a rebound.
“Unless we have a more serious nationwide yield concern, this does take that hope out of the picture right now,” Nelson said.
On the positive side, Nelson said lower soybean acres do raise the potential bottom for fall lows. Looking ahead, Nelson said the weather this summer will play a large role in these numbers going forward.
View the latest Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports from USDA below:
