Fri, 14 Oct 2022 08:51:37 CDT
A Red Flag Warning is in effect today from Noon through 8:00 PM across northeastern and parts of eastern Oklahoma. Another warm and dry day across Oklahoma with west-southwest winds increasing into the afternoon ahead of a weather system that will push rain chances across Oklahoma Saturday afternoon through Sunday. While those rain chances are widespread, the current forecast continues to favor areas along and south of I-40 and portions of eastern Oklahoma. Today, temperatures will again be above normal and afternoon relative humidity values will dip into the 16-24% range across Oklahoma while increasing westsouthwest winds will drive potential for moderate to rapid rates of fire spread on established wildfires.
Warned Area/Southeastern Oklahoma: The benefit of respectable overnight moisture recovery will quickly wane as temperature warms into the 82°-88° range under clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values dropping to 16-23%. Fine-dead fuel moisture will register 4% with some locations observing 3% yielding very receptive carrier fuels. West-southwest winds sustained 11-17 mph with some gusts 25 and potentially 30 mph this afternoon will support moderate to rapid rates of fire spread and continued problematic fire behavior including single/group tree torching and frequent spotting. Grass-dominated fuels will exhibit head fire rates of spread at 87-140 ft/min with flame lengths 10-16 ft. Timber-litter ROS 15-30 ft/min and FL around 6 ft at the head fire should be anticipated. Pine-dominated and pine plantation fuel types will exhibit problematic fire behavior very quickly after ignition and have potential to transition to extreme fire behavior (short crown runs / extended spotting distance) with average ROS 27-53 ft/min and surface fire FL 7.5-10 ft. Wind speeds are expected to subside after sunset offering improved opportunity to contain going fires.
Central/Western Oklahoma: Moderate to marginal overnight moisture recovery will rapidly erode as temperatures warm today prompting an earlier start to the active burning period unlike recent days. Under clear skies, temperature will warm into the 80°’s (78° in the far western Panhandle) with afternoon relative humidity values 15-24% yielding very receptive fine fuels at 3% across the western counties and 3-4% in central Oklahoma. Probability of ignition greater than 80% indicates that frequent spot fires should be expected on going fires. Rangeland fuels will exhibit head fire rates of fire spread at 84-135 ft/min with flame lengths around 12 ft. During the peak burning period, increased rates of spread and intensified fire behavior should be expected where winds are aligned with topographic influence. Mixed fuels where brush/juniper is present will exhibit single/group tree torching and frequent spotting. Winds will calm following sunset although fine-dead fuel moisture will be slow to improve prompting an extended burning period today.
Near-Term: Another warm day on Saturday (90° on the Red River) although a front is expected to stall out over Oklahoma with wind speeds generally less than 10 mph sustained and fine-dead fuel moisture values stalling at 7% or so. Widespread rain chances overspread Oklahoma Saturday evening and more so in the overnight hours persisting into Sunday when opportunity remains focused across southern Oklahoma. Some optimism for solidly wetting amounts of rainfall is reflected in NOAA’s 72-hr. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Much cooler temperatures are forecasted for early next week shifting into a more-fall like pattern. A quick glance at the into the 6-10 day outlook points to a return to an overall dry pattern.
OFS STATISTICS for October 1, 2022 OFS
NE Area – 3 Fires Burned 33.1 Acres (Cause: 1-Equipment, 2-Incendiary)
EC Area – 1 Fire Burned 2 Acres (Cause: 1-Escaped Debris)
SE Area – 4 Fires Burned 12.1 Acres (Cause: 1-Escaped Debris, 1-Equipment, 2-Incendiary)
Large / Significant Fire Activity within the OFS Protection Area: No New Activity
Fire Activity with OFS Response outside of the Protection Area: 1 Fire Burned 32 Acres (Cause:1-Incendiary)
OFS Prescribed Fire Activity: No New Activity
Fire Department Statistics: Light Initial Attack Activity
Burn Bans:
Refer to: https://ag.ok.gov/divisions/forestry-services/ for the most current burn
ban information and links to specific burn ban proclamations.
