Wed, 02 Nov 2022 08:40:51 CDT
Elevated fire weather this afternoon will be limited to the Panhandle and far northwestern counties along the OK/KS border over receptive fuels that are generally more than 30 days separated from wetting rains. Strengthening southwest winds in this area and receptive fuels will support potential for rapid fire growth on fires that become fully established during peak burning conditions late afternoon. While large fire potential is in the mix today in the Panhandle and northwestern counties, initial attack efforts are generally expected to be successful. Elsewhere, dry conditions are forecasted coupled with gusty winds across the western half of Oklahoma. Elevated relative humidity values will aide in holding fine-dead fuel moisture above critical threshold limiting probability of ignition in the carrier fuels (dead/dormant grass loading).
Northwest / Panhandle Counties: Elevated fire weather over very dry fuels will develop this afternoon into the evening hours with emphasis on the Panhandle and northwestern counties along the OK/KS border. Overall, new fire occurrence should provide good opportunity for successful initial attack, although a large fire (+300 acres) cannot be ruled out during peak burning conditions late this afternoon. Respectable overnight moisture recovery will erode through the day with afternoon relative humidity observations 21-32% as temperature warms into the mid- to upper-70°’s under mostly clear skies yielding fine-dead fuel moisture at 6% across most of the area and locally 5%. Southwest to south winds will increase through the morning into the afternoon sustained 20-24 mph with some gusts around 35 mph. During peak burning conditions and on fully established wildfires, rangeland fuels will exhibit head fire rates of spread 138-190 ft/min and flame length 11-14 ft. Some problematic fire behavior should be anticipated in mixed fuels. Winds will remain sustained above 15 mph well into the evening and overnight although relative humidity values will improve with good overnight moisture recovery expected.
Near-Term: Breezy conditions will persist across the west on Thursday although increasing gulf moisture and sky cover will serve to hold fine-dead fuel moisture well above concerning levels limiting fuel receptiveness. Rain chances increase Thursday with some opportunity beginning in the west by the afternoon hours increasing into Thursday evening and overnight. As the system moves east, widespread wetting rains are expected through Friday. The current forecast has backed off the amounts from earlier forecasts, although most of the state will likely see wetting amounts with best opportunity in central and eastern regions as indicated in the 72-hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. Dry conditions are expected to return next week although no critical fire weather is expected.
Burn Bans:
NE Area –
EC Area – No New Activity
SE Area –
Large / Significant Fire Activity within the OFS Protection Area: No New Activity
Fire Activity with OFS Response outside of the Protection Area: No New Activity
OFS Prescribed Fire Activity: No New Activity
Fire Department Activity: Light Initial Attack Activity
