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Let's Check the Markets!
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Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
has 462 head of cattle on their showlist for the Wednesday, August 14th sale fo finished cattle - click here
to jump to the website.
OKC West steer and heifer trade was too lightly tested for an accurate trend though a much lower undertone was noted - click or tap here for the full report from the USDA.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by Justin Lewis of KIS futures
- click or tap here
for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
Our Oklahoma Farm Report Team!!!!
Ron Hays, Senior Farm Director and Editor
Carson Horn, Associate Farm Director and Editor
Pam Arterburn, Calendar and Template Manager
Dave Lanning, Markets and Production
Kane Kinion, Web and Email Editorial Assistant
Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Wednesday, August 14, 2019
| Featured Story:
Steve Thompson was recently selected to lead the public policy efforts of the Oklahoma Farm Bureau as the organization's senior director of public policy. Prior to his new role, Thompson served as director of government relations and ag programs for American Farmers and Ranchers before transitioning to OKFB as an assistant director to former State Senator Ron Justice, who retired from OKFB this year.
Since stepping into Justice's shoes, Thompson has jumped head-first into OKFB's 2019 edition of its August Area Meetings, which serve as the foundation of the organization's grassroots policy development process. In an interview with me, Thompson highlighted some of the major themes that have risen to the top of discussions this year among OKFB members who have attended the meetings that have taken place thus far.
"This is really the kick-off to our policy development process. We've given a look back at the 2019 Oklahoma Legislative Session and kind of a sneak preview of what we foresee on the horizon for 2020 at the State Capital," Thompson said, explaining the process from this point on. "The members that come to these meetings will go back to their county and develop policy recommendations and it will work its way up to the district level and move through our state resolutions process. That really forms our guidance for the next year."
Click or tap here to listen to the whole conversation between Thompson and I regarding his new position.
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Fire struck the Tyson Food's Holcomb, Kan. beef packing plant at the end of this last week. The cattle market quickly responded Monday with limit losses locking down both the live and fed cattle complexes. As of Tuesday morning, August live cattle were still trading -$4.50 at $100.55 while August feeder cattle had recovered slightly from yesterday, down just $3.05 at $131.35. In an interview with me, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel explained that it will likely take some time for the market to sort out the ramifications of this fire.
"Obviously, there will be some fairly pronounced initial reactions. Some of that just stems from the uncertainty of knowing where we are and how long this might last and exactly what the path back from this will be," Peel said, remarking on the significance of losing up to 5% of the industry's slaughter capacity and the disruptions that will cause in the supply chain. "So, there will certainly be impacts for specific farms and accounts and clients - but perhaps maybe more generally in the boxed-beef market."
On the other side of things, Peel says fed cattle are coming in on a regular basis. While other packers may try to take advantage of the situation and make up for the resulting slack this fire has caused, Peel worries that there really is not much flexibility in their production schedules to do so. He muses that if cattle are delayed for a while, the worst-case scenario would be that for at a period of time, those cattle would add more weight and potentially impact supplies. The more pressing question at this point, however, is what the nature of this situation actually is - short or extended? Some early comments by Tyson suggest that the plant could be reopened fairly quickly. Although some speculation has circulated that it may be time to build a whole new plant all together as some believed the industry was approaching its full slaughter capacity even before the fire.
You can listen to the entire conversation between Peel and I on Tuesday's Beef Buzz - here.
Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson offered an analysis of the wheat market. Based on his analysis, Anderson also offers his advice on how producers might adjust their marketing strategy moving forward.
"After the release of the August 12 WASDE, Dacoma, Oklahoma cash wheat prices fell to $3.68. Cash prices and the KC Wheat (hard red winter (HRW)) contract prices were down 29 cents for the day. This 29 cent price decrease may be due to a 36 million bushel (mb) increase in U.S. HRW wheat production, and a 25 mb increase in Other Spring wheat production combined with the corn production estimate being 13.9 billion bushels (bb) compared to the prerelease trade estimate of 13.2 mb. The final 'nail in the coffin' for Oklahoma's wheat price may be the fact that average protein for 2019 HRW harvested wheat is about 11.3 percent when the market wants 12.5 percent protein wheat. Black Sea area wheat (Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan) protein is expected to average above 12.5 percent.
"During the time period June 1 through August 12 this year, Burlington Oklahoma wheat prices averaged $4.28. During the same period last year, Burlington wheat prices averaged $5.24. Oklahoma wheat producers that harvested wheat this year averaged 40 bushels per acre, compared to 28 bushels per acre last year. Using Burlington's average harvest price and 40 bushels per acre, the income per acre is $171.00 compared to $147.00 last year. A 110 mb wheat crop at $4.28 has a value of $470 million (110 mb x $4.28) compared to 70 mb last year with a value of $366 million (70 mb x $5.24). It could be said that yield is more important than protein."
You can read more of Anderson's market analysis and his suggestions for producers going forward this year, by clicking or tapping here.
China and Japan Continue to be on the Trump Trade Radar
Just when you think that there is zero chance of selling China any agricultural goods anytime soon- Here come's President Trump with the word that he is pushing back those ten percent tariffs that caused China to declare they would stop buying ALL US Agricultural products.
The U.S. Trade Representative's office made the announcement Tuesday the administration would not implement the planned tariffs. Instead, the tariffs will be implemented December 15, 2019. USTR Robert Lighthizer says certain products are even being removed from the tariff list based on health, safety, national security and other factors and will not face the additional tariffs of 10 percent. The move likely gives Lighthizer more time to negotiate with China, which the two sides are set to meet next month in Washington.
President Trump claims the delay is part of an effort to avoid the impact of the tariffs on holiday shopping. However, the two sides did talk over the phone this week, and Trump called the talks positive, adding a deal could be coming soon. However- there is no signal from the other side of the Pacific about the treatment of US farm products by China after these latest developments.
NOW- What About Japan??? Fox Business is reporting the Trump Administration is promoting to the Japanese the idea of getting something done sooner rather than later on US Agriculture.
Fox Business says "President Donald Trump is reportedly urging Japan to increase its purchase of U.S. agricultural products, a request that comes as China halts it owns purchase of domestic farm goods amid an escalating trade dispute with the White House.
"Trump's ask of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, reported on Tuesday by Kyodo news agency, comes as the two nations seek to craft a broad agreement, reportedly by September. A White House spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment."
Trade issues with the Trump Administration change quicker than the weather here in Oklahoma. If you don't like the latest word- wait an hour and you'll have a fresh development to chew on.
The vision of the Oklahoma Beef Council is to be a positive difference for Oklahoma's farming and ranching families and the greater beef community and its mission is to enhance beef demand by strengthening consumer trust and exceeding consumer expectations. To learn more, visit www.oklabeef.org. Also, don't forget to like its Facebook page at www.facebook.com/oklabeef for stories on Oklahoma's ranching families and great beef recipes.
July 2019 saw decreases in U.S. sales of self-propelled combines and 4-wheel-drive tractors as well as total U.S. 2-wheel-drive tractor sales compared to July of last year, according to the latest data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM).
U.S. 4-wheel-drive tractor sales decreased 4.7 percent July compared to last year and U.S. July self-propelled combine decreased 25.9 percent. Total U.S. sales of 2-wheel drive tractors in July decreased .1 percent compared to July last year: under 40 HP 2-wheel drive tractors decreased .6 percent, while sales of 40-100 HP tractors grew 4 percent, and sales of 100-plus HP tractors declined 9.8 percent.
"To keep the U.S. agriculture economy strong, we're encouraging a swift passage of USMCA and continued focus on renewable fuels to help provide some stability for farmers in the months ahead," said Curt Blades, AEM Sr. VP, Agricultural Services. "AEM is committed to advocating for pro-growth trade policies and the end to retaliatory tariffs."
You can read more from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, by jumping over to our website.
The AFR Summer Fiesta Membership Meetings wrapped up Monday night in Elk City. Staff traveled across the state networking with members and discussing youth, policy and membership opportunities.
This summer, 230 members attended Fiesta themed meetings held in Durant, Tonkawa, Tahlequah, Chickasha and Elk City. Each meeting cultivated the opportunity for members to ask questions and to learn more about how the organization represents their members at the state and national capitol and through youth leadership activities.
"Our members are some of the best in the state," said Scott Blubaugh, AFR/OFU Cooperative President. "The Summer Fiesta Membership Meetings allow us to personally connect with each member that attends, and helps us to understand how we can better serve our members through our membership benefits."
Click or tap here to read more about the AFR Summer Fiesta Membership Meetings.
The following is an editorial from Executive Director of Oklahoma Youth Expo, Tyler Norvell, talking about the importance of an updated "Big House" for those from all walks of life. (to explain- The Big House is the Coliseum at State Fair Park- and a replacement for the aging structure is being considered as a part of the next round of sales tax investments in Oklahoma that voters will consider at the end of this year.)
"For people like me from rural Oklahoma, "The Big House" at the State Fairgrounds is a special place.
"It's where we cheered on our hometown teams. Where we forged friendships in the show ring with peers from all four corners of the state. Where we met wives and husbands.
"For more than 50 years, the arena has been a dream destination for students across Oklahoma. Whether they want a state champion trophy or a grand champion ribbon, the fairgrounds arena - dubbed "The Big House" in the 1960s - has been featured in the fantasies of basketball players, wrestlers and participants in the Oklahoma Youth Expo.
"Trips to the Big House introduce Oklahoma City to thousands of students who live outside of the metro area. These young leaders compete at the fairgrounds at a time when they are also considering their career paths. Many will leave their rural Oklahoma roots, but that doesn't mean they need to leave Oklahoma to find opportunity.
"Oklahoma City attracts these young people because voters have a long history of approving 1-cent sales taxes to fund improvements such as the Bricktown canal and ballpark, the downtown arena and the soon-to-open Scissortail Park.
"Including funding for a "New Big House" in MAPS4 would continue the tradition of taking bold steps to maintain the city's momentum. The coliseum would help entice young adults from around the state to make Oklahoma City their home when they decide where to launch their lives.
"An upgraded coliseum would also be a significant financial boon for our capital city. As the world's largest youth livestock show, the Oklahoma Youth Expo generates $25 million in economic impact for Oklahoma City, with students and families filling local hotels and restaurants for the entirety of the event. A state-of-the-art facility supporting larger crowds will only add to the financial impact.
"To keep Oklahoma City vibrant, competitive and growing, we need to invest in a "New Big House" for our youth and for the city."
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