|We invite you to listen to us on great radio stations across the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network weekdays- if you missed this morning's Farm News - or you are in an area where you can't hear it- click here for this morning's Farm news from Ron Hays on RON.
Let's Check the Markets!
Today's First Look:
mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
Each afternoon we are posting a recap of that day's markets as analyzed by Justin Lewis of KIS futures
- click or tap here
for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
Our Oklahoma Farm Report Team!!!!
Ron Hays, Senior Farm Director and Editor
Carson Horn, Associate Farm Director and Editor
Pam Arterburn, Calendar and Template Manager
Dave Lanning, Markets and Production
Macey Mueller, Email and Web Writer
|Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Monday, August 22, 2016
No Big Surprises Seen in Last Friday's Cattle on Feed Report- Derrell Peel Explains All
The latest monthly USDA Cattle on Feed report was released on Friday afternoon- and one of the leading Land Grant Livestock Market Economists in cattle country says the report came in very close to what was being expected based on pre report guesses. I caught up with Extension Beef Economist Dr. Derrell Peel to debrief his initial reaction to the numbers in the report- overall, he sees no surprises..
"I'm actually very confident that we're in better shape and feel more comfortable with the feedlot situation," Peel said, "because we are more current, we're sort of leaner and meaner compared to what we were, not only last year especially, but even really the last two or three years."
Dr. Peel summarized the report saying that across the board it was all well anticipated and he felt as though no major surprises came out with the report, noting that marketings were right where they were expected to be - down one percent, and placements slightly higher than the average guess - at up two percent.
Comparing the report to the last three or four, Peel spotted a few trends. He says the industry is continuing year-over-year increases in placements which he says is well-known and will continue to happen for the foreseeable future. He noted that marketing continues to be aggressive, so feedlot inventories are not building very fast.
Click or tap here for a full look at USDA's Cattle on Feed report and to listen to Dr. Peel's full analysis.
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|TPP Remains a Lightning Rod Issue- Labor and Progressives Keep Pressure on for No Lame Duck Vote
A week ago Friday- agricultural interests cheered word from the Obama Administration that the President intends to send the Trans Pacific Partnership to Capitol Hill for their ratification vote before the end of the year- hoping for Lame Duck consideration.
However, that has enraged the Progressives within the Democratic Party- especially Bernie Sanders
faithful, who continue to demand of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton
- who demand that she push the President to back off moving forward on consideration of the massive trade deal after the November General Election.
The Wall Street Journal has a feature article this morning
that calls chances for ratification "bleak."
"Failure at this point, experts say, would dent U.S. credibility on everything from trade to its commitment to a region where U.S. might has underpinned security since World War II.
"For the simple reason that the U.S. invested so much in it, the deal acquired a kind of totalistic value that goes way beyond its economic merits," said Euan Graham, a former U.K. foreign officer who studies regional security at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney. "To leave Asian partners hanging now would be disastrous for U.S. leadership in the region."
"The administration continues to hold out hope for the TPP's passage. "We're a vote away from either cementing our leadership in the region or handing the keys of the castle to China," said U.S. Trade Representative Mike Froman
Obviously, it's not just Democrats that have been bashing TPP. The Republican standard bearer for this fall, Donald Trump
, has been consistent in his disdain for the TPP- saying we need to scrap the agreed to language and start over- he contends that his administration could and would write a better deal.
In a Breitbart story published this past week
on the Trump stance against TPP- "a vote for Trump-the GOP nominee for president-is a vote to kill and bury the highly controversial TPP. A vote for Democratic nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton, meanwhile, is a vote to ensure the success of TPP or something identical to it.
"Trump has built his campaign's success on highlighting the drained American manufacturing sector, where since the Hillary and Bill Clinton championed North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Mexico and Canada, countless factories across America have shut down and moved overseas. The TPP is expected to be worse than NAFTA, and was originally supported again by Hillary Clinton-who praised it at least 40 times over the years, once even calling it the "gold standard" of trade deals.
"While Hillary Clinton now purports to oppose the deal, it is understood that she won't do anything to stop President Barack Obama from pursuing its final passage in a lame duck session of Congress after the election."
The article goes on to repeat the claim that Trump will withdraw from the TPP if he is elected and Congress approves it in a Lame Duck vote.
For a trade deal that is so important to agriculture, the prospects for ratification don't look very good.
Cow-calf margins have been and will continue to be under pressure as the U.S. beef cowherd has expanded recently. Producers will need to continue to make adjustments in years to come to help mitigate a reduction in profitability. This and other issues will be covered in an upcoming free CattleFax webinar, which will address the cow-calf and entire beef industry for the last half of 2016 and into 2017.
One of the most aggressive U.S. beef cowherd expansions in the last four decades has increased beef supplies and caused cow-calf profitability to suffer recently. As profits narrow, well-informed producers can maintain healthy margins by adjusting production, marketing and risk management plans with increasing supplies in mind.
The CattleFax Trends+ Cow-Calf Webinar will be at 5:30 p.m. MT, August 31, 2016. To participate in the webinar and access program details, producers and industry leaders simply need to register online by clicking here.
Read more on discussion topics and details of the webinar by clicking here.
|Put Wheat in Government Loan Program Advises OSU's Dr. Kim Anderson
Oklahoma State University Extension Grains Market Analyst Dr. Kim Anderson recently released his latest analysis on the current outlook of the wheat market in Oklahoma. He shared his findings with Radio Oklahoma Network and offered strategy advice for producers marketing their grain.
Anderson reports that given record or near record Australian, Canadian, and Russian wheat production and the fourth record world wheat crop (27.3 billion bushels) in a row, the odds of a significant price move is relatively small. The odds that wheat prices have bottomed out are probably about 75 percent. And although the KC wheat contract may by developing a weak uptrend, September and December contracts need to close at $4.40 and $4.60, respectively.
"Variable costs for 2017 Oklahoma wheat production is estimated to be between $140 and $185 per acre (without a land charge). Using 35 bushels per acre, the break-even price would be between $4 and $5.30 per bushel. With a KC July17 wheat contract price of $4.75 and a minus 95 cent basis, wheat may be forward contacted for June 2017 delivery for $3.80. A $40 land charge would add $1.15 per bushel to the variable costs," Anderson said.
Anderson suggests producers consider putting their grain in the government loan program (MAL), to wait for higher prices to materialize. If they don't, Anderson says farmers will only be out about a 40 cent price risk from the low interest storage costs.
Midwest Farm Shows is our longest running sponsor of the daily email- and they say thanks to all of you who participated in their 2016 Oklahoma City Farm Show.
Up next will be the Tulsa Farm Show in December 2016- the dates are December 8th, 9th and 10th. Now is the ideal time to contact Ron Bormaster at 507-437-7969 and book space at the 2016 Tulsa Farm Show. To learn more about the Tulsa Farm Show, click here.
|When Retaining Replacement Heifers - Keep Cost in Mind
There are a lot of advantages for producers rebuilding their mama cow herd, to retain replacement heifers and keep them back for their own operation. However, before making the decision to do this, Beef Cattle Specialist Dr. Bob Weaber, wants producers to understand the costs associated with it.
"The things we need to think about are, one: are our heifers worth more than suitable ones we could buy and make a swap," Weaber said. "The other bits are really centered around; how do I get a weaned heifer calf to her first calf."
The only costs really associated with this, Weaber says, is frankly time and feed - plus some potential interest costs if an operating note is in use. Also, he says to arrive at a well-rounded figure, producers should apply a breeding cost, whether that represents an artificial insemination (AI) program or the cost of providing a bull. He reminds producers also to consider budgeting for inevitable culling to compensate for heifers that don't breed or die, as they move forward in planning.
Once all these factors have been considered, he says the main focus should concentrate on feeding costs. Most importantly though - Dr. Weaber says before you even begin bouncing the idea to retain heifers around, review your current financial situation and pending obligations and determine whether or not you can afford to retain heifers. He says with cow costs still averaging between$700 and $800, some producers may need to sell off more heifers to make ends meet.
Click here to listen to Dr. Bob Weaber as we feature him on today's Beef Buzz.
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|Kansas Senator Moran Asks USDA and USAID to Prioritize Wheat in Food Aid Programs
Senate Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Jerry Moran (R-KS) has written a letter
to Secretary of Agriculture Vilsack and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Administrator Gayle Smith, urging the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and USAID to prioritize wheat in U.S. food aid in order to reduce global insecurity and to address the historic wheat harvest in the U.S.
Although these high yields have depressed prices, they represent an opportunity to increase shipments of wheat through food aid programs, continuing the U.S.'s position as a leader in the fight against global hunger. The U.S. contributes nearly half of all in-kind donations to food insecure countries.
Senator Moran's letter urges the Obama administration to consider the role of wheat as the most consumed commodity worldwide and encourages them to increase wheat in their food aid programs.Click here to read the Moran letter
on the need to use more US Wheat in our international aid efforts.
|This Week- Range Roundup, Farm Bureau's August Area Meetings and Canadian County to Host Wheat Meeting
In case you missed it- we talked on Saturday morning with Dallas Henderson
of the Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association about the group's 32nd Annual Range Roundup that is happening this coming Friday and Saturday- we have a story posted this morning on our website- available by clicking or tapping here
- which features the video of that conversation and more details on the 2016 Cowboy event.
You can call for tickets- the number is 405-282-3004 or you can click or tap here.
The majority of the August Area Meetings
planned by the Oklahoma Farm Bureau
were held last week- but a pair of the meetings are yet to be happening- tonight in El Reno and then Thursday in Woodward.
Both meetings will start at 6:00 PM- tonight at the Canadian County Farm Bureau building in El Reno and then Thursday evening at 6 PM at Big Dans in Woodward.
Details on the meetings are available here
Got a note last Friday from Canadian County Extension Agent Kyle Worthington
about their Wheat Production Extension Meeting planned for this morning
- the program starts at 8:30 at the Royse Ranch Classroom, 9304 North Highway 81 in El Reno.
Lyle, Heath Sanders and Marty New
will be talking about wheat planting decisions and tips for dual purpose wheat production this fall.
If you have a calendar item that you want us to include on our website calendar- get it to us a little quicker than that and we will get it listed! Drop me an email by clicking here.
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