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mornings with cash and futures reviewed- includes where the Cash Cattle market stands, the latest Feeder Cattle Markets Etc.
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for the report posted yesterday afternoon around 3:30 PM.
Okla Cash Grain:
Feeder Cattle Recap:
Slaughter Cattle Recap:
TCFA Feedlot Recap:
Our Oklahoma Farm Report Team!!!!
Ron Hays, Senior Farm Director and Editor
Carson Horn, Associate Farm Director and Editor
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Dave Lanning, Markets and Production
|Oklahoma's Latest Farm and Ranch News
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON
Monday, February 11, 2019
Markets Unfazed by USDA Data Dump - Analyst Brady Sidwell Says ''World Has Plenty of Everything''
On Friday, the USDA dumped a major set of data relieving some of the department's backlog of information reporting that was delayed due to the 35-day government shutdown that ended recently. Seven reports in total were released, after which we reached out to Brady Sidwell
of Sidwell Strategies
here in Oklahoma for his reaction on the information published and what insights the data might reveal to the current market.
Sidwell says a quick summary of the Friday reports is that the world has plenty of everything. That simple fact he believes is behind the market's reaction - or lack thereof - to these reports, insisting that much of the information reported was fairly well-anticipated by analyst expectations.
"Despite some reductions in US ending stocks that should have been supportive of the market, we saw global stocks increasing," Sidwell said. "When that happens, markets don't typically react too much."
Listen to Sidwell's full analysis of the USDA reports released Friday, by clicking here
or check out the reports for yourself by following the corresponding link, below.
Crop Production- 2018 Annual Summary
Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings
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Winter Wheat Seedings Fall Again in Oklahoma and Kansas- Down 700,000 Acres From 2018- Canola Acres Vanish
One of the reports most important to Oklahoma and their southern plains neighbors, Kansas and Texas, was the winter wheat and canola seedings report. The key numbers were the hard red winter wheat seedings for those states as winter wheat seedings overall ended up down four percent from a year ago.
The Winter Wheat Seedings in total of 31.29 million acres was the lowest on record since 1909. Top-grower Kansas planted 7.2 million acres, down from 7.7 million last year, down six percent while Oklahoma dropped another 200,000 acres compared to a year ago at 4.2 million acres seeded this past fall and now in the ground. Texas is flat on the year at 4.5 million acres, surpassing Oklahoma in winter wheat acres by 300,000.
In total, the hard red winter wheat acreage number is called 22.2 million acres for the current crop in the ground, down three percent from a year ago- Besides Oklahoma and Kansas losing wheat acres, Nebraska shows a total of 930,000 acres- down 15% from a year ago and a record low acreage number, according to USDA.
The Canola crop and related industry has almost evaporated. Two years ago in Oklahoma, there were 160,000 acres planted to canola- the 2017 fall seeding window was difficult and canola dropped to 70,000 acres. Now, it appears that many farmers have given up on canola with its narrow thirty day planting window provided by RMA for crop insurance purposes- and USDA is reporting only 30,000 acres planted to canola this past fall in Oklahoma- a 57% reduction from the 2017 planting window.
At one point- it appeared that winter canola was going to be an answer for winter wheat producers as a rotation for winter wheat- offering the opportunity to break up stubborn weed cycles and enhance soil health with a deeper root than winter wheat. It was predicted that we might reach somewhere close to one million acres annually of winter canola- but that seems well out of reach looking down the road.
Click here for the Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report from last Friday- and Click or tap here for the Southern Region of NASS's reports that zeroed in on the Seedings report, as well as the annual crop production and grain stocks in Oklahoma and Texas.
Western Oklahoma Braces for Very High Fire Danger
Officials with Oklahoma Forestry Services are preparing for predicted high fire danger in western Oklahoma today (Monday). The primary area of concern is the Oklahoma panhandle, as well as counties bordering the Texas panhandle. Areas to the east of this could be affected if the forecasted dry air shifts farther east than predicted.
Firefighting resources are being prepositioned in Guymon and Weatherford in advance of the predicted fire weather. This includes two OFS wildland task forces and an Oklahoma National Guard helicopter on standby for deployment. These resources will be poised to respond to any new fires and available to assist local resources with extended attack as well.
"Recently, numerous fires have been sparked in Western Oklahoma by vehicles dragging chains or driving on a tire rim after a flat," said State Forester Mark Goeller. "This area is very dry with no significant rainfall in the last 30 days."
Monday's forecast calls for relative humidity in the low teens to 20% range, winds gusting over 30 mph and temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Citizens are urged to be cautious not to spark a wildfire and to report any suspicious smoke or fire to their closest fire department or by calling 911. Homeowners can also make their home more defensible by moving trash, debris and other flammable items like firewood piles or portable propane tanks a safe distance away from their home.
"Under these conditions we are strongly discouraging any outdoor burning in the affected area on Monday," said Goeller. "This is a short duration event, with conditions improving by after nightfall."
November Beef Exports Remain on Record Pace; Headwinds Weigh on Pork Exports
While the November beef export report came out a month later than usual because of the government shutdown, it still showed good things for beef. U.S. beef exports continued on a record pace in November. However, pork exports trended lower year-over-year.
Statistics from USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation show that beef exports totaled more than 112,000 metric tons in November, one percent higher than the previous year. Export value jumped six percent to just over $709 million. For January through November, beef exports reached 1.24 million metric tons, eight percent higher year-over-year. At a total of $7.63 billion dollars, beef export value was up 16 percent and had already broken the full-year record set in 2017.
November pork exports totaled just shy of 207,000 metric tons, down eight percent year-over-year. The value fell 12 percent to $538.7 million as retaliatory tariffs in key markets continued to hit U.S. pork hard. From January through November, exports were steady with the record pace of 2017 at 2.23 million metric tons. The value also dropped one percent to $5.86 billion dollars.
Click here to jump to the full report from the USMEF for complete details.
|National Cotton Council Predicts Oklahoma to Plant 788,000 Cotton Acres in 2019- Up One Percent from 2018
U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 14.5 million cotton acres this spring, up 2.9 percent from 2018 (based on USDA's December 2018 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council's 38th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.
Upland cotton intentions are 14.2 million acres, up 2.8 percent from 2018, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 264,000 acres represent a 6.3 percent increase. The survey results were announced Saturday at the NCC's 2019 Annual Meeting in San Antonio, Texas.
Dr. Jody Campiche, the NCC's vice president, Economics & Policy Analysis, said, "Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather, insect pressures and agronomic conditions play a significant role in determining crop size."
Campiche noted, "History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions. The cotton-to-corn price ratio is lower than in 2018 due to higher corn prices as compared to last year. The cotton-to-soybean price ratio is higher than in 2018 due to lower soybean prices. A price ratio increase generally indicates an increase in cotton acreage.
"For the 2019 crop year, many producers have indicated a desire to reduce soybean acres due to low returns in 2018. As a result, corn is expected to provide the strongest competition for cotton acres in 2019."
Southwest growers intend to plant 8.8 million cotton acres, a 2.2 percent increase. Increases in cotton area are expected in each of the region's three states.
In Kansas, producers intend to plant 3.4 percent more cotton acres along with more wheat and less 'other crops', likely sorghum. Total Kansas acres are predicted to be 171,000 acres this spring.
In Oklahoma, a 1.0 percent increase in cotton acreage is expected- with Oklahoma producers expected to plant 788,000 acres in 2019, versus 780,000 acres in 2018.. Oklahoma growers also plan to increase acreage of wheat and 'other crops'. The Oklahoma expected planted acreage is the third highest state predicted acreage, behind Texas and Georgia plantings intentions for 2019. (Georgia is predicted to plant 1.379 million acres- down over four percent from 2018.)
Texas acreage is expected to increase by 2.3 percent- with a total predicted cotton planting for 2019 to come in at 7.874 million acres.
To review the rest of the Cotton Belt expectations for 2019- click or tap here.
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At the recent 2019 Cattle Industry Convention in New Orleans, we caught up with NCBA's Executive Director of Governmental Affairs Allison Rivera who talked with us about several issues the industry is tackling right now, including the US Department of Transportation's restrictive Hours of Service Rule which limits commercial truck drivers active driving hours - which as you can imagine might be an issue for those hauling livestock.
Currently, drivers have 11 hours of maximum drive time after 10 consecutive hours off duty. For livestock haulers, this is more often than not an inadequate amount of time to safely and humanely transport livestock from one location to their final destination. During the Convention, Rivera says NCBA formally submitted a petition demanding livestock haulers be granted 16 hours of on-duty time with 15 hours of drive time after 10 hours of off-duty time. This schedule, she says is based off the Australian model which has had a long record of success.
"It's an animal welfare issue. Hauling a load of toilet paper is very different from hauling a load of cattle. This is the US government taking a wide brush and painting across the entire trucking industry," she said. "This is not a silver bullet... for some people 15 hours is not enough. But, we have to be cognizant of what is possible when we're working with a government agency. And so, it's more time than people have now and we think it's a step in the right direction."
Listen to Rivera address the confusion surrounding the ELD mandate and Hours of Service rule with Hays, on today's Beef Buzz - click here. Our coverage from New Orleans and the 2019 Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show powered by Corteva Agriscience, delivering solutions to help you manage weeds and brush- learn more by clicking here for their website- www.RangeAndPasture.Com.
When planning to establish pasture and rangeland for the grazing season, weed management is top of mind for producers. Associate Farm Director Carson Horn sat down with Corteva Agriscience Field Scientist Scott Flynn during the 2019 Cattle Industry Convention and Trade Show, to talk about this perennial challenge farmers face and how Corteva can help overcome them.
According to Flynn, a vast majority of the country is still recovering from the impact of the recent drought. Pastures were very weakened by this extreme weather event and have not had adequate time to repair. Knowing this, Flynn says producers will probably roll into 2020 with thin pastures that will practically invite weeds in.
To combat this, Flynn says it's going to be important to get those weeds under control early on and work on fertility where possible to make desirable species of grass and forage as competitive as possible. For this, Flynn recommends producers consider using DuraCor - Corteva's latest broadleaf herbicide for pasture and range. Powered by Rinskor™ active, DuraCor features a low use rate, compatibility with dry and liquid fertilizer, a low-odor formulation, and offers season-long residual control. Pending EPA registration, DuraCor will provide cattle producers a broader-spectrum weed control product, compared with current market standards and help them extend and maximize their grazing season.
You can listen to their complete conversation to learn more about DuraCor and Corteva's full and extensive herbicide portfolio, by clicking or tapping here.
|This and That- Blayne Arthur Confirmation Set for Today, Sirloin Club's Chalice Auction Tuesday and Mike Dain Trust for FFA
This morning at 10 AM, the Senate Ag Committee, chaired by Casey Murdock, will meet in Room 511-A at the State Capitol to consider the confirmation of Blayne Arthur to serve as the Cabinet Secretary of Agriculture in the Stitt Administration- succeeding Jim Reese. They will also hold a vote on Mrs. Arthur to serve on the State Board of Ag as well- succeeding Jim Reese.
Details of the Agenda for this morning are available here.
Here's a reminder for supporters of the Oklahoma Youth Expo that one of the events that point us toward the start of the 2019 show comes up Tuesday evening- it's the Sirloin Club Banquet and Chalice Auction on tomorrow night- February 12th- at the National Cowboy & Western Heritage Museum.
Reception and Silent Auction start at 5:30 PM with the Dinner and Live Auction to follow at 6:30 PM.
Agriculture was well represented for the Celebration of Life for former farm broadcaster Mike Dain this past Saturday- and I have heard from several of you that you are planning to honor Mike with a gift in his name to the Oklahoma FFA Foundation.
You can still do that. . Here's the link if you would like to donate in his memory- on the FFA Foundation page- you will see a Donate Button- click on it- and then note the gift is in honor of Mike Dain Trust. Our initial goal is to raise $1,000 and that will establish the Trust on a permanent basis to benefit the programs of the Oklahoma FFA Association- and it is hoped we will raise significantly more than that for this trust to support Oklahoma FFA in Mike's name.
|Our thanks to Midwest Farms Shows, P & K Equipment, Oklahoma Farm Bureau, Stillwater Milling Company, National Livestock Credit Corporation, Oklahoma Beef Council, Oklahoma AgCredit, Herb's Herb Hemp Farm, the Oklahoma Cattlemens Association and KIS Futures for their support of our daily Farm News Update. For your convenience, we have our sponsors' websites linked here- just click on their name to jump to their website- check their sites out and let these folks know you appreciate the support of this daily email, as their sponsorship helps us keep this arriving in your inbox on a regular basis- at NO Charge!
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