~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Oklahoma's latest farm and ranch news
Your Update from Ron Hays of RON for Wednesday January 5, 2011A service of Producers Cooperative Oil Mill, Midwest Farm Shows and KIS Futures!
-- Three Dog Night Alert- Arctic Air Has Booked Passage Due South Towards Oklahoma
-- Staying with Weather Stuff- December and 2010 Stats
-- Traditional Beef- Beef You Can Count On
-- Organizations Have Alternatives to Simplify E15 Label
-- R-Calf Weighs in on Live Cattle Futures Contracts with the CFTC
-- Are Pork Prices Ready to Head North in 2011?
-- A Bit of Catch Up- The December Winter Wheat Crop Condition
-- Let's Check the Markets!
Here's your morning farm news headlines from the Director of Farm Programming for the Radio Oklahoma Network, Ron Hays. We are proud to have KIS Futures as a regular sponsor of our daily email update. KIS Futures provides Oklahoma Farmers & Ranchers with futures & options hedging services in the livestock and grain markets- Click here for the free market quote page they provide us for our website or call them at 1-800-256-2555. When you call them- ask them about their great Iphone App which provides futures quotes for your Iphone.
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Three Dog Night Alert- Arctic Air Has Booked Passage Due South Towards Oklahoma
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The National Weather Service is talking cold- really cold. "A large arctic airmass will build over northern and western Canada later this week- and then move south over the weekend and next week. It now looks like the arctic air will begin to move into the southern plains as early as Friday night or Saturday, although the coldest air is more likely to arrive Sunday into Monday. Bitterly cold conditions will prevail through at least the first half of next week.
"In advance of the cold air, a storm system currently off the California coast will move across Texas and Oklahoma this weekend. This storm will bring a chance of rain Saturday, which could turn into a light wintery mix in some areas Saturday night before the system moves off to the east early Sunday. Another stronger upper-level storm system will approach the area from the northwest late Sunday and Sunday night. As the cold air deepens, the predominant precipitation type is expected to become all snow by Sunday in most areas. There is a possibility of some significant accumulations of snow Sunday night and Monday, especially across northern Oklahoma.
"This arctic air will be the coldest of the season- and along with brisk north winds, will result in very low wind chills. Some locations could see multiple days with temperatures remaining below the freezing mark and winds chills below zero through the middle of next week.
"Residents of Oklahoma and north Texas are encouraged to prepare now
for the possibility of an extended period of very cold weather. provide
water to outside pets and livestock and make sure they will have a place
of shelter from the cold. Protect exposed pipes, as the extended cold
could result in frozen pipes. It is also a good idea to make sure your
vehicle has a strong battery and adequate anti-freeze."
Staying with Weather Stuff- December and 2010 Stats
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Courtesy of Gary McManus, our Oklahoma Assistant State Climatologist, here's some details of how 2010 in general and December 2010 in particular stacked up weather wise. Gary writes "December tried to end 2010 in a tranquil manner after a year's worth of tumultuous weather. Mother Nature provided a punctuation mark instead as a strong tornado touched down near Westville in Adair County on New Year's Eve. The tornado eventually traveled into Arkansas, killing three near the small town of Cincinnati. A less violent hazard - drought - dug its heels into most of the state during the month as lack of precipitation contributed to the 32nd driest December since records began in 1895. Statewide average temperatures were a bit above normal as well but the month still finished as the 58th coolest on record. "
December definitely left us drier as we end the old year and begin 2011. "The Mesonet site at Mt. Herman led the way with 4.03 inches of rainfall while Altus went rainless for the entire month. In fact, most of the northwestern two-thirds of the state received less than a half-inch of rainfall. "
As far as the extremes of 2010- Gary tells us "The highest temperature
recorded by the Mesonet during 2010 was 109 degrees at Freedom on August 2
and 13. On the cold side, -6 degrees was recorded at Buffalo on January 8
and at Vinita on January 10. Miami recorded the most rainfall with 48.26
inches while Boise City brought up the rear at 15.01 inches.
Traditional Beef- Beef You Can Count On
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Tracy Chapman is a consultant working for a group called "Just Ask a Woman" and they have recently completed a study of today's female consumers in the US- and their beliefs and behaviors related to beef.
Chapman says that the US beef cattle industry needs to adjust its thinking and language to meet today's female shopper where she is at. Chapman calls it "rethinking your business in their terms." One of the key changes that the US cattle industry should consider is to develop a name that invokes trust with the consumer for what we might call conventional beef. This is the vast majority of beef that is produced here in the United States using modern production practices and technology. Chapman doesn't like the term conventional- but suggests the concept of Traditional Beef- Beef You Can Count On.
For a second day- we explore what she means by this in today's Beef
Click on the LINK below for more on these ideas with Tracy Chapman of
the Consulting Group "Just Ask a Woman."
Organizations Have Alternatives to Simplify E15 Label
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~In formal comments submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Growth Energy and the Renewable Fuels Association have each proposed new labels for E15 that will, according to Growth Energy, more accurately provide consumers with the information they need to make educated decisions at the pump. These alternative labels were submitted because both organizations feel EPA's proposed label has shortcomings.
The RFA says EPA's label's shortcomings include - leading, unscientific statements, confusing technical information and unwarranted warnings. The association believes the label as written will seriously impair long-term progress towards achieving the country's stated goals for renewable fuels
Essentially, both proposed labels informs consumers:
R-Calf Weighs in on Live Cattle Futures Contracts with the CFTC
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~R-CALF USA has urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to use its rulemaking authority to fully restore the cattle futures market to its original purpose of affording U.S. cattle producers a useful marketing tool, void of distortion and manipulation by certain speculators and other dominant market participants. The urging came in submitted comments to the CFTC for its rulemakings. R-CALF USA claims that U.S. cattle producers sell their cattle into one of the most highly concentrated marketing structures in the U.S. economy.
R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard wrote - cattle producers, some of whom use futures markets to offset price risk, are vulnerable to any market distortions caused by beef packers that may not only participate in the futures market as physical hedgers, but also as significant speculators as well. As a result, - cattle producers are particularly vulnerable to financial failure caused by both market volatility and market distortions.
R-CALF USA believes the CFTC should: 1) Make it unlawful for dominant beef packers to engage in speculative short selling; 2) Ensure the live cattle futures market is dominated by physical hedgers; 3) Impose effective speculative position limits across all markets; 4) Restore daily market price limits; and 5) Impose effective speculative position limits on all feed grain commodities markets.
Are Pork Prices Ready to Head North in 2011?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Hog and pork prices are expected to launch to record highs in 2011. The stimulus will come from smaller per capita U.S. supplies and from much stronger demand driven by recovering U.S. and world economies and by the inflationary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Live hog prices in 2011 are expected to exceed $60 per live hundredweight, or over $80 on a lean basis. However, these record prices will be overshadowed by record costs of production. That's the opinion of Dr. Chris Hurt of Purdue University who offers the following analysis.
Pork production will drop modestly in 2011 as the industry has been adjusting to high feed prices since 2007. The USDA December Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers continued to reduce the size of the breeding herd last year by 72,000 head, or about one percent. The 2010 reduction was focused in North Carolina which had a reduction of 90,000 head. Farrowing intentions were down one percent for this winter and down two percent for this coming spring. This means some additional herd liquidation will be likely this winter. The industry has been downsizing since 2007 due to high feed prices. In December of 2007, the U.S. breeding herd stood at 6.233 million head. Today the herd is at 5.778 million head or a seven percent reduction. Pork consumers will finally be feeling the pain of high feed prices in the record retail prices they will face in 2011.
How high can hog prices go in 2011? Historically $90 lean prices, or
about $67 live, were the top of futures markets. Some current futures
prices now exceed $90 for the spring and summer delivery contracts and
raise the possibility of them reaching $100, or $75 live.
A Bit of Catch Up- The December Winter Wheat Crop Condition
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The first crop conditions report of the New Year is actually a look at December crop conditions from NASS and the USDA. For both Oklahoma and Kansas crop conditions, the dry December definitely took its toll on the condition of the hard red winter wheat crop.
The folks in Kansas had a even tougher December than Oklahoma had(we described that in our second story above) as only two locations in southeastern Kansas got measurable rain the entire month of December. As a result, their 2011 wheat crop is now rated 33% poor to very poor, 40% fair, 25% good and only 2% excellent. Click here for the Kansas report from earlier this week.
Our Oklahoma crop went into December in better shape than Kansas- and for now it remains in better shape, with a rating for the beginning of the new year- based on December conditions of 19% poor to very poor, 44% fair, 32% good and 5% in excellent condition. Click here to jump to the Oklahoma monthly summary for more details on not just the wheat crop condition- but other crops and pastures as well.
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Let's Check the Markets!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~We've had requests to include Canola prices for your convenience here- and we will be doing so on a regular basis. Current cash price for Canola is $9.75 per bushel, while the 2011 New Crop contracts for Canola are now available are $10.35 per bushel- delivered to local participating elevators that are working with PCOM.
Here are some links we will leave in place on an ongoing basis- Click
on the name of the report to go to that link:
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