CattleFax Projections Include Decline in Beef Supply, Rising Prices in 2013 

Cattlemen and women gathered at the 2013 Cattle Industry Convention and National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) Trade Show to hear CattleFax market analysts' projections for the year ahead. Creighton University Professor Emeritus Art Douglas told the audience that there is a chance some regions of the United States will see a return to more normal precipitation patterns during the upcoming spring and summer growing season. That was welcome news to participants, many of whom have been enduring an ongoing, multi-year drought which has affected more than 70 percent of cattle country.

(I spoke at length with CattleFax CEO Randy Blach after the presentation. You can listen to our conversation by clicking here.)

If precipitation returns to near-normal levels for the 2013 growing season, CattleFax predicts farmers in the U.S. will plant a record number of acres in both corn and soybeans. CattleFax Grain Market Analyst Chad Spearman told the audience that would lead to lower feed grain prices this year.

"If we see anything close to trend line yields, we'll see relief on the supply side and the result will be price relief, particularly in the second-half of 2013," said Spearman, who added that the additional moisture will help mitigate hay prices after harvest begins this summer.

"With a little help from Mother Nature, we will be in much better shape with regard to hay supply and prices during the second half of the year," he said.

Click here to read more of this story.  

As a special incentive to go and download our App for either your Apple or Android smartphone- we have two exclusive pieces of audio on the APP- the full audio presentation of Randy Blach on Friday in Tampa and the full Kevin Good presentation- Kevin talking specifics on cattle market outlook and Randy talking Big Picture issues. Click here for our links from last Monday's email on where to go to get the App and download it on your phone or Ipad.  

USDA to Release New Long-Term Agricultural Projections 

The U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release new 10-year agricultural projections on Feb. 11, 2013, at 11:00 a.m. EST. USDA's Agricultural Projections to 2022 will be posted to the Office of the Chief Economist's (OCE) website at www.usda.gov/oce and available in MS Word and PDF formats. Projections data will be available as Excel spreadsheets here.

USDA publishes the projections each year in February. The projections are developed by interagency committees in USDA, with the Economic Research Service (ERS) having the lead role in the preparation of the report. The new projections cover crop and livestock commodities, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators, such as farm income and food prices, through 2022. The projections do not represent a USDA forecast, but a conditional, long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about farm policy (including extension of current farm law through 2022), weather, the economy and international developments. Normal weather is assumed throughout the projection period. 

Click here for a link to the background and back issues of the USDA's long-term reports.

US Cotton Acres Could Fall 27 Percent, Based on NCC Planting Intentions Survey

U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.01 million acres of cotton this spring, down 26.8 percent from 2012, according to the National Cotton Council's 30th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.

Upland cotton intentions are 8.81 million acres, down 27.0 percent from 2012, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 203,000 acres represent a 15.0 percent decline. The survey results were announced today at the NCC's 2013 Annual Meeting being held February 8-10 in Memphis.

Oklahoma producers, in responding to the NCC request, indicated that they will reduce acres by 12% in 2013 to 267,000 acres, while Texas producers expect to plant 25 percent fewer acres, dropping below five million acres planted in 2013 to 4.9 million acres.

Assuming slightly above-average abandonment in the Southwest region due to the dry conditions and all other states set at historical averages, total upland and ELS harvested area would be 7.65 million acres, which is 15.2 percent below planted area. Applying state-level yield assumptions to projected harvested acres generates a cotton crop of 12.86 million bales, compared with 2012's total production of 17.01 million bales. 

You can read more of this story on our webpage by clicking here. 

U.S. Corn Yield Growth Dependent on Adoption of New Production Practices

Increasing plant population density will be critical to growing yields in U.S. corn production, but increasing this density will be dependent on the economics farmers face as they seek to increase yields, according to a new report released today by researchers at the Rabobank International Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory (FAR) group. The report, titled "Crowding The Fields," finds it likely we'll see one to two years of stagnant plant population growth due to high input costs and dry soils in the U.S.

"Corn yield growth in U.S. is reaching a key milestone as the trend of increasing plant population per acre is challenged by limitations of the current production processes," notes Sterling Liddell, vice president with the Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory group. "We know the confines of current equipment and production techniques will eventually challenge the ability of U.S. farmers to sustain historic yield growth trends. Trends our global population is demanding. "

The report finds the key areas where future problems are becoming measurable in more dense plant populations include: a lack of adequate precision in planting equipment, fertilization practices which can encourage non-uniform plant growth, and insufficient spacing for root systems to develop. Each of these factors alone present serious challenges to long term growth in the corn yield curve. However, taken together, these obstacles are capable of severely restricting yield growth potential over the long term. 

You can read more by clicking here.

USDA Climate Change Adaptation Plan Open for Public Comment

In order to fulfill its mission of providing leadership on food, agriculture, natural resources, rural development, nutrition, and related issues, USDA focuses on the future. The Department recognizes the significance of global climate change and how potential impacts such as more frequent or severe weather events can affect our programs and operations.

To better coordinate USDA's sustainability efforts and build on past success, USDA has prepared its 2012 Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan that underscores strategies and goals to save taxpayer dollars, reduce carbon emissions, cut waste and save energy. As part of this effort, this year they have also prepared a Climate Change Adaptation Plan that outlines how the Department will address the impacts of climate change on its key mission areas such as agricultural production, food security, rural development, and forestry and natural resources conservation. The plan is available and open for a 60-day public comment period.

USDA encourages the public to review the document and provide comments by April 8, 2013.

Click here for more.

Drought May be a Blessing In Disguise for Cattle Producers Donnell Brown Believes

Donnell Brown from the RA Brown Ranch near Throckmorton, Texas, spoke to attendees at the Cattle Industry Convention in Tampa, Florida.

He and his family know firsthand about surviving hard times-the ranch has been in business since 1895 and continues to be a leader in raising top-quality commercial cattle and registered quarter horses. The ranch has received both the National Cattlemen's Beef Association Cattle Business of the Century Award and the American Quarter Horse Association / Bayer Best Remuda Award. The ranch utilizes some 40,000 acres in Texas and Colorado. 

After his presentation, I asked him what was the biggest concern right now facing his operation.

"The easy answer to that is surviving this drought. We don't know when this drought is going to end. I'm hoping it's sooner instead of later. That's the biggest challenge where we are. On our ranch today, 70 percent of it we cannot use today because we're out of water. We are absolutely out of water on 70 percent of the ranch. And that creates a huge challenge.

But, he says, those producers who can survive the drought and those who enter the business after it, the profit potential will be enormous, especially for cow-calf operators.

You can read more or listen to our full conversation by clicking here. 

This N That- Rainfall Mostly a Miss But Hoping for Snow, Superior Market Recap and Altus Production Meeting Cometh

The rain making system that arrived in Oklahoma over this past weekend brought very little rain into much of Oklahoma and offered a lot of disappointment to the northwestern two thirds of the state. The heaviest amounts of rain reported by the Oklahoma Mesonet were all in the southeastern most counties- Lane with .93 inches of rain and Clayton with .85 inches were the rainfall winners.


West of Interstate 35, the one rainfall amount that jumped over the half inch mark was found in Ringling with .61 inches of rainfall. 

There is a fast moving system aimed at northwestern Oklahoma that could deliver three to six inches of snow tonight into early Tuesday morning- we have a graphic on that potential snowfall as well as the rainfall graphic from this past weekend- click here to take a look. 

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Cattle producers from 22 states consigned 34,000 stockers, feeders and bred stock to the Superior Livestock satellite video auction that occurred this past Friday.


The market on yearling steers was $4-$6 lower than last sale in all classes. Yearling heifers were $3-$5 lower. Light calves were $10-$15 lower while the heavy calves were steady.   

We have details on several of the top lots- click here to read more about some of the sales that helped establish the trends on Friday in the Superior Livestock Sale.   

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The Jackson County Winter Ag Conference is set for tomorrow- February 12 in Altus at the Southwest Technology Center. Registration starts at 8 AM and the all day program will wrap up around 4:30 pm.

There is quite a lineup of OSU Extension folks that are on the program for 2013- from production to market outlook- it's all going to be covered. Click here for the speaker lineup and agenda- looks like Gary Strickland- the County Ag Educator in Jackson County- has pulled an outstanding program together.