Mark Hodges Calls Upcoming Oklahoma Wheat Harvest Half the Size of 2012 -- If We Are Lucky 

The extent of the damage from this year's spring weather on the hard red winter crop is beginning to show. There have been multiple freezes across the wheat belt, drought conditions and, in some places recently, heavy rains and hail.

Mark Hodges of Plains Grains spoke with me and says there has definitely been some damage to the crop, but most of it was done before the late season freezes.

"The drought is probably more devastating than what the freezes have been, if you look on a wide-scale basis. And, of course, that starts in South Dakota and moves southward into the Nebraska panhandle. They have had some freeze damage, but the drought has devastated them. They will harvest very little wheat in the Nebraska panhandle."

Hodges said that drought damage in southeast Colorado is extensive as well. He said grasslands have been hard hit, too.

When thinking about Oklahoma, Hodges said the crop overall is in poor shape coming off of a fairly good year. He said this year's production will be far below last year's.

"It's probably half of what we had last year, realistically, half. We hope it doesn't go any lower than that. It potentially could."

He says producers are also concerned about quality, and rightly so.

You can listen to our full conversation or read more of this story by clicking here.

Wheat and Soybean Growers Welcome Senate Agriculture Committee Farm Bill Draft- EWG Not So Much

In advance of Tuesday's scheduled markup, the Senate Agriculture Committee released a draft of its proposed farm bill, which met with approval from the nation's soybean farmers. American Soybean Association (ASA) President and Canton, Miss., soybean farmer Danny Murphy welcomed the draft and encouraged its expedited passage:

"ASA commends Chairwoman Stabenow, Ranking Member Cochran, and members of the Senate Agriculture Committee for their work thus far in crafting a proposed farm bill. Importantly, the draft released by the Committee would protect and strengthen crop insurance as well as ensure that a target price program to protect growers from low prices remains decoupled from current planting decisions, thus avoiding the possibility of production distortions. Combined with a revenue protection program similar to that included in last year's Senate bill, the proposed legislation takes significant steps to provide farmers with effective risk management programs while protecting planting flexibility and avoiding planting distortions."

Click here to read more on the soybean statement.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Wheat Growers also seemed pleased with the Chairwoman's Mark- their President Bing Von Bergen said "We commend the Committee for producing a bill that will provide wheat farmers with a strong safety net through Title I programs and crop insurance."  Click here for the full wheat growers statement.

Finally-the Environmental Working Group offered limited praise about the proposal- saying "We need a farm bill that provides a fiscally responsible safety net and makes critical investments in programs that protect public health and the environment. Overall this new proposal takes us in the wrong direction." 

Click here for the full EWG statement.

You can jump over to the Senate Ag Committee website- click here- to see the Chairwoman's comments on the proposal and a link to all 1100 pages that makes up the Stabenow starting point for next Tuesday's Mark Up.

Historical Patterns Help Wheat Producers Sell at a Profit, Kim Anderson Says

When it comes to how to best market one's grain, Grain Marketing Specialist Kim Anderson says understanding the market's historical perspective can ease risks and produce profits. By evaluating what has happened over the last few years, Anderson says in a preview to this week's SUNUP program, producers can increase their profitability.

"We need to go back about five years to when we had a definite shift in the market. So we'll start at June 2008 and come to the present. If you were going to use Medford, Oklahoma, daily cash prices, and if you'll look at the average cash price, it was $6.40 over the last five years. If you look each day at an average daily move, it averages 11 ½ cents per day and the maximum daily change was 64 cents."

Things get even more interesting as harvest nears.

"Just looking at June prices, monthly average prices, if you go back to 2008, the average price in June was $8.19, but the range in prices was $1.67 range from $7.22 to $8.29. If you go to 2009, the average price was $5.84 and the range was from $5.24 to $6.67, a $1.43 price move just in the month of June."

"2010, prices were in the tank, $3.69 average, $3.39 to $3.91, only a 52-cent monthly price move.

"I think it's a clear strategy to don't sel it all at once, that you stagger it throughout the market. What you've got to do is sell it over time, a third, a third and a third."

Click here to listen to more of Kim Anderson's analysis or to see this week's lineup for SUNUP. 
 

Obama Administration's USDA Offers Preferential Deal to Certain Farm Programs Under Sequestration 

In yesterday's email- we had a story on farm programs and sequestration- our story was correct- but there is more to the story which explains how the USDA is picking winners and losers in the sequestration games.

USDA reported this week that they were restarting the farm program payments in three programs immediately- SURE, NAP and MILC- and that there would be no sequestration cuts in these programs- because as their news release stated "The Department will use the Secretary's limited authority to transfer funds to avoid reducing these program payments."

Apparently, the Secretary decided to use his limited authority to make those who sign up for a direct farm program payment for this crop year to pay for the sequestration obligations of those who have received or will receive the rest of the fiscal year- the agency has chosen to exempt those programs from the sequestration cut of 5.1 percent that USDA had said earlier would apply to the various programs administered by FSA.

To make up for these three programs not paying for their part of the budget cuts- the Administration apparently will require an extra 3.4 percent from all direct farm program payment participants. That means Direct Farm Program Payment Participants (and that number is still an unknown as sign up can go until early June for ACRE and into August for DCP for this one year farm bill extension.) will ante up 8.5% of their payments as tribute to the sequestration gods.

There had been talk by Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack earlier this year that those who received money from one of the three programs who are now getting a total pass on cuts would simply be docked for the deductions they would owe from payments made earlier in the fiscal year as Vilsack's contention is that most of them also will be a part of the DCP/ACRE program- the number that was thrown out by the Secretary was 90%.

However- if you flip the scenario- you suddenly have many participants that will be signed up for DCP/ACRE that will not be participating in one of the three programs that the Secretary has offered preferential treatment- and those direct payment folks will pay for the others. Mary Kay Thatcher of American Farm Bureau, in discussing this "winners and losers" strategy being adopted by the Obama Administration, says "We think it is unfair and we're really concerned about the precedent."

If you want to read more on this subject- our friend Jerry Hagstrom wrote about this in advance of the decision not to make the three programs pay anything- click here for his story from a few weeks back.

OSU Economist to Host ACRE vs. DCP Decision Webinar for Oklahoma Producers

Oklahoma State University Extension Economist Jody Campiche will host a public webinar on the 2013 ACRE vs. DCP decision. The webinar will run from 9:30 a.m. to 11 a.m. on Thursday, May 16th.

The deadline to enroll in the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program is June 3, 2013. Campiche will discuss the ACRE vs. DCP decision regarding Oklahoma crops. She will also demonstrate the use of an online Excel-based Oklahoma decision tool.

The webinar will be recorded and will be available on the OSU Extension and OSU Ag Policy websites.

To learn more about joining the webinar, click here.

Senate Adopts Amendment Easing SPCC Regulatory Burden on Farmers

U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), senior member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, praised the adoption of Amendment 801 to the Water Resources and Development Act that would grant relief from the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Spill Prevention, Control and Countermeasure (SPCC) Rule for farms and ranches. The amendment was adopted Wednesday night by Unanimous Consent.

"Since I was notified of plans for the implementation of EPA's over-reaching SPCC rule years ago, I have been fighting for a permanent exemption for small farmers and ranchers," said Inhofe. "Last night, this goal was accomplished. These regulations were originally designed for refineries and major handlers of oil products; it is unnecessary for this rule to be applied so strictly to farmers. I am glad my Senate colleagues agreed, and I look forward to ensuring this provision remains in the bill when WRDA is conferenced with the House."

"We want to thank Sen. Inhofe for his leadership fighting to exempt small farms from the SPCC rule. It is a great victory for Oklahoma's farmers and ranchers," said Terry Detrich, President of Oklahoma Farmers and Ranchers.

President of the Oklahoma Farm Bureau Mike Spradling added, "We are grateful for Sen. Inhofe's common sense approach to lessen the regulatory burden for our farmers and ranchers. The government should be trying to help us produce more food and fiber, rather than obstructing production with these expensive, unnecessary regulations." 

Click here to read more of this story on our website.

This N That- Lahoma Field Day, American Agri Women and USDA Crop Reports 

Lahoma Wheat Field Day will kick off in a couple of hours- and before you jump on the trailers about 9:25 or so- the Chairman of the House Ag Committee, Frank Lucas, will have some comments for the gathering about 9 AM this morning. Click here for details-  See ya there!

**********

Jump over to our website for details of the American Agri-Women who are having a reorganizing meeting for women in the state who hope to see an affiliate of the national group rise up from the ashes of the old Oklahoma Women in Ag group- click here for details about the meeting- and we'll have a feature story with AAW President Karen Yost first of the week- click here for the details of today's meetings at the Best Western Saddleback in Oklahoma City.

**********

USDA will have several important numbers coming out of the USDA Crop Reports that will be released at 11 AM central time.  Perhaps the number that will be of greatest interest around here will be the first field based survey of the amount of winter wheat that might be produced here in the US for 2013.  We'll have coverage on our website as reaction comes in- check back in the afternoon to take a look.