USDA Corn Stocks Figure Surprises Traders, Signals Bearish Market, Ag Economist Says 

 In its Quarterly Grain Stocks report released Monday, USDA pegged old-crop corn stocks at 824 million bushels. That was 74 million bushels above the highest pre-report trade estimate. USDA's soybean ending stocks figure came in at 141 million bushels, largely on a revision to 2012 production data.

"One hundred and 41 was more than the market was looking for and USDA did revise their 2012 production number by about 20 million bushels in order to reconcile with the old stocks figure as of September 1," said University of Illinois Agriculture Economist Darrel Good. "So, once that adjustment is made, everything makes sense; the stocks line up with known use in the summer quarter and this is a fairly common practice that a surprise in the stocks number on September 1 results in a change in the previous year's production number. That happens. And the 20-million-bushel change this year is middle of the road in terms of magnitude of change that we've seen over time."

Good said the revision does not make much difference because soybean stocks are still very tight. It doesn't significantly change the supply-demand balance for next year.

"The big question is still crop size and how big will the total supply be for the current marketing year."

Click here to read more of this story or to see a video version of it on our website. 

You can read the full USDA grain stocks report by clicking here.

Widespread rainfall began across Oklahoma Friday night and continued Saturday, resulting in 1.2 inches on average for the week, statewide. The heaviest totals were across northern Oklahoma and into southeastern Oklahoma.

Planting of small grains and canola made significant progress before the weekend rainfall, and continued with the additional moisture received. Small portions of wheat, rye and canola were reported as emerged by the end of the week.

Eighty-four percent of wheat seedbed preparation was complete as of Sunday, and 37 percent of wheat had been planted. Just six percent of wheat had emerged by Sunday.  Canola seedbed preparation was 89 percent complete by week's end, and 44 percent had been planted by the end of the week, on track with last year's crop. Five percent of canola had emerged by Sunday.  (Click here for the latest Oklahoma Crop Weather report.)

In Kansas, temperatures averaged slightly warmer than normal, but damp conditions slowed corn harvest across most of the State.  Winter wheat planted was 33 percent, near 37 last year and 35 average. Emerged was 8 percent, near 9 last year and 10 average.  (You can read the full Kansas report by clicking here.)

Precipitation was widely received across Texas last week.  The majority of producers had their wheat seeded before additional rainfall was received this past weekend. Early seeded wheat benefitted greatly from recent precipitation. Producers in the Northern Plains and the Cross Timbers were seeing good stands. Grasshoppers were causing damage to newly seeded wheat in the Cross Timbers.  (Click here for the Texas report.) 

You can read the full national Crop Progress report by clicking here.

Recent Rains 'More Substantial' than Previously Thought, McManus Says

This past weekend's rains turned out to be a bit more substantial than previously thought, and all things considered, ended as probably one of the better statewide rains we've seen all year, said Associate State Climatologist Gary McManus.

It didn't exactly turn September's totals all the way around, but it did help northwestern Oklahoma, especially.

On average statewide, however, McManus said the state will probably end up with an average of 2.6 inches, 1.21 inches below normal as measured by the Mesonet.

Now that's only good for the 51st driest since records began in 1895, but it ranges across the state from the 13th wettest in the Panhandle (2.95 inches on average, 1.07 above normal) to the 27th driest in south central Oklahoma (1.71 inches on average, 2.63 inches below normal).

You can read more and see the latest Mesonet maps by clicking here.
 

Higher Prices Will Test Beef Demand, but Herd Expansion on the Way, Peel Says

It's been a week since the latest Cattle on Feed report from the USDA showing 11 percent fewer feeder cattle being placed in the feedlot in the month of August than one year ago. It also showed seven percent fewer cattle on feed overall.

Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Economist Derrell Peel has examined the numbers and tells us  in the latest Beef Buzz that the wholesale boxed beef price will creep up beyond $2 per pound and producers will get a test to find out how much demand there is at those prices from the consumer. 

"I really expect that we will move the choice boxed beef back above that $2-a-pound mark before the end of the year-perhaps quite a bit above it, at least at times. And, then, I think, that demand question really takes precedent at that point and it's a two-part concern on the part of demand. One is how much will consumers buy? But beef isn't one product, it's many different products. I think the more important question is 'What kind of adjustments will the consumer make in terms of different products?' How will they substitute among products? And, obviously, they'll change the frequency of some products. So, we don't really know what to expect."

You can read more of this story or listen to the latest Beef Buzz by clicking here. 

The Government Shutdown Report- USDA Web Geek Fences Off Much of Their Site- NAWG and ASA Issue Statements Calling on Congress to Figure Out End of Shutdown

We sincerely regret this inconvenience.

"After funding has been restored, please allow some time for this website to become available again."

You can get to the Economic Research Service pages- and if you have the actual link for a Market News report- you can get to them- but that is about it. For example, the NASS portion of the website is walled off- past data (including Monday's reports) are not available.

Meanwhile, a couple of farm groups used the midnight hour to release statements blasting Congress over the failure of not just the government shutdown- but also the expiration of the one year extension to the 2008 Farm Law.  National Association of Wheat Growers President Bing Von Bergen says it's time for Congress to do their job- "I know I join my fellow farm leaders and my fellow wheat growers when I say that enough is enough. Funding the government is the basic charge of Congress, and policymaking on farm and nutrition policy impacts direct stakeholders and our economy as a whole."   Click here for the complete statement. 

Steve Murphy of the American Soybean Association was just as blunt if not more so- focusing on the failure to not get a farm bill done- "Congress has yet again failed its most basic duty: to debate and pass legislation and, frankly, we've run out of ways to say we're disappointed."  Click here for the full release from the American Soybean Association describing that disappointment.  

National FFA Organization Membership Explodes to 579,678 Students; Oklahoma Fifth Largest State Membership

Analysts forecast that the world's population will grow to 9 billion people by 2050. With global needs today to fight hunger and prepare for the expected population explosion, the agriculture industry needs educated, skilled and passionate people dedicated to sustainability.

Students are answering that call, evidenced by an explosion in FFA membership throughout the U.S, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the past year.

Membership in FFA today stands at 579,678 students in grades seven through 12. More than 22,300 new students joined FFA during the 2012-13 school year. The number of new, local FFA chapters throughout the country has grew to 7,570.

You can read more of this story on our website by clicking here. 

This N That- Carl Wiedemann Services Set, OCA Selling Those Ribeyes and In the Field Video with Harry Birdwell

We heard Monday of the passing of Canadian County farmer Carl Wiedemann.  Services are planned on this Saturday, October 5, at 2 pm at the Trinity Lutheran Church in El Reno, Oklahoma.  

Wilson Funeral Home in El Reno will be taking care of the services. Carl is the husband of former State Representative and friend of agriculture Anna Belle Wiedemann of Yukon, Oklahoma. 

Anna Belle is truly the pioneer for every lady in the state that has stepped up through the years in public life as either a government official or as a leader in a farm organization- she paved the way and has set the standard high.  And by her side all of those years has been Carl.  He will be missed.

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We got a Monday note from the Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association about the most popular food item found on the fairgrounds at the Tulsa State Fair- here's their update-