Yields Up, Acreage Down in Latest USDA WASDE and Crop Production Reports

The November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released by the Agriculture Department shows increased supplies of corn- based on USDA's increases in crop production also released this past Friday.

Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013-14 are raised with higher estimated beginning stocks and increases in corn and sorghum production with the November Crop Production report. Corn production is forecast 146-million bushels higher at a record 13.989-billion bushels. A 1.9-million-acre reduction in harvested area is more than offset by a 5.1-bushel-per-acre increase in the forecast yield. At 160.4-bushels per acre - the national average yield remains 4.3-bushels per acre below the record in 2009-10.  

"The seasonable fall weather across much of the nation helped late-planted crops develop and increased yield projections from the September report," explained Todd Davis, American Farm Bureau Federation economist.  (You can read more about the WASDE report and find a link to the full report by clicking here.)

On the heels of the increased corn projections, the USDA's Crop Production report  revised

The weather also remains good for harvest so far this year, allowing growers to harvest 73 percent of the corn crop by November 3, which is 2 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average harvest rate.

The Crop Production report also reduced the planted area for soybeans to 76.5 million acres, down 1 percent from the previous forecast. Just as with corn, however, favorable weather conditions account for higher pod counts compared with the 2012 yield. Soybean yields are expected to average 43.0 bushels per acre, with the final production forecast at 3.26 billion bushels. If realized, this will be the third largest production year on record. (Click here for more of this story and for a link to the Crop Production report.)

Traders Surprised by Friendlier than Expected USDA Reports 

The USDA's World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports out today were't exactly "bullish" to most traders, but they were friendlier than had been expected. The data reveals higher yields and production but not high enough to keep the market from selling off- Friday's settlements showed soybean gains of 27 to 29 cents per bushel and corn futures higher by six to seven cents per bushel.

Rich Nelson from Allendale says that traders had expected increases in the ending stocks, but they paid particular attention to the production reports.  Traders were not as surprised with the increase in yields for corn and soybeans as they were in the USDA's reduction in the number of acres both planted and harvested.

They were also somewhat surprised in only slight increases in the ending stocks which were not enough to characterize them as bullish, Nelson said.

You can watch Rich Nelson's full analysis on our website by clicking here. 

With the exception of the 2013 Oklahoma Peanut crop, the spring planted crops that are tracked by USDA have checked in at much higher levels for 2013 compared to the drought impacted growing season of 2012.

Specifically- here is what Wil Hundl and his Oklahoma NASS staff reported on Friday:

Clay Pope Talks Farm Bill Progress and USDA's New Focus on Soil Health

For the most part, says Clay Pope of the Oklahoma Association of Conservation Districts, conservation should not be a major roadblock to the passage of the 2013 farm bill that is currently in conference committee. While the language in both the House and the Senate versions of the bill is nearly similar, Pope says there is one sticking point that will have to be ironed out. 

"I think the one issue that's probably out there that is in play yet is this idea of compliance on crop insurance. The Senate has taken the position that it would like it, the House doesn't want it. How that's going to come out I think still needs to be decided, but, by and large, we're really happy with the language that's in Title 2 right now and both the House and Senate versions. We're just wanting to see the work get done and finally bring this bill across the finish line and get something in place for the next five years so we can move forward."

While the farm bill has taken center stage for much of the last two years, the USDA has been working quietly on an initiative to promote soil health. Pope says it's a subject that is near and dear to every producer's heart and it's an initiative whose time has come.

"It's probably the most exciting thing we've seen in conservation in the last three decades. It's the idea of basically trying to have what we're calling the 'Brown Revolution.' We all know about the 'Green Revolution' which revolutionized agriculture and saved millions of lives worldwide: the introduction of hybrid seeds, the focus on improved genetics, fertilizer, doing things to improve yields worldwide. It was good and it stopped at a point. Now, we've got to move forward with the next stage, I believe, in production agriculture and that's the Brown Revolution. And what we're talking about is improving soil health."

You can listen to my interview with Clay Pope or read more of this story by clicking here.
 

New Report Highlights Need for Farm Bill, Vilsack Says

The following is a statement by Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack on the release of "Rural America at a Glance, 2013 Edition" by USDA's Economic Research Service:

"Today's annual report by USDA's Economic Research Service - Rural America at a Glance, 2013 Edition - highlights the critical need for a new Food, Farm and Jobs Bill that will help to reverse troubling demographic and economic patterns in rural America. The fact is, too many people in rural America live in persistently-poor areas. Too many people still have trouble finding a good job. The populations of too many small towns and rural communities are shrinking. This is just one more reminder that we need a national commitment to create new opportunities in rural America that keeps folks in our small towns and reignites economic growth across the nation. The Farm Bill would invest to grow agricultural exports, and strengthen new markets for agriculture that hold job creation potential. It would spur new opportunities to manufacture products and energy from homegrown materials. It would invest in the future of Main Street businesses and communities. Rural America needs a new Farm Bill now, to meet these modern challenges head on and chart a pathway for future economic success across our rural areas."

Click here to download the full report from our website. 

Our Monday This N That- Obama on the Farm Bill, Canola Board Meeting and Farm Bureau Presidential Politics

The two weeks ahead of Thanksgiving could determine if Congress will get that done yet this year. The House and Senate will both be in session before taking a Thanksgiving break that is scheduled to begin November 22nd. Congressional aides have suggested that recess will last two weeks. That schedule would have members returning December 9th for another two week session before an expected December 20th departure for the Christmas and New Year's holidays. The farm bills approved by the House and Senate will not expire at the end of the year since the congressional session continues - but the pressure is on to finish a farm bill by then.

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Oklahoma is hosting the fall board of directors meeting of the US Canola Association today through Wednesday- with growers welcome to attend sessions planned on Tuesday.   

The meetings are taking place downtown at the Colcord Hotel- and reflect the growing importance of canola in the southern great plains.  Jeff Scott, the current President of the Great Plains Canola Association, is the incoming President of the US Canola Association- and will take the reins of the national group next spring.  

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The 2013 annual meeting and trade show of the Oklahoma Farm Bureau kicks off at the end of this week- and it appears that there are two announced candidates to run for the Presidency of the state's largest general farm group.  Roland Pederson, who was named President of the group in mid September by the Board of Directors,  is planning on running for a full two year term of the office, while Tom Buchanan of Jackson County is also running for the spot. Pederson farms in Alfalfa County and represents District seven while Buchanan serves on the State Board of Farm Bureau- presenting District two.  

We are hearing talk of others being nominated as delegates gather on Friday and Saturday at the Embassy Suites in Norman- but nothing has been confirmed at this time. 

Interest is running high out in the country- which normally translates into a highly attended annual meeting for the farm group this week.  

Click here for the agenda that is published on the Farm Bureau website for their 72nd annual meeting.