USDA Forecast Lower Than Expected Corn Yields and US Wheat Crop Increased

A projected record US corn crop would indicate that the US Department of Agriculture's corn numbers are bullish, but one analyst believes its unlikely the market will trade it. After the release of monthly crop production report and the monthly supply demand report, Allendale Analyst Rich Nelson said USDA's yield estimate of 167.4 bushels per acre was too low in being below every single guess of the various 26 analysts surveyed by Reuters Newswire ahead of this report. The average guess for yields was 170.1.


"The trade feels very clearly that yields are much higher than USDA's number 167.4 and this is only one small move in a general long-term move which will take months for USDA to actually recognize the true extent of this year's supply," Nelson said.  

The estimates for wheat also brought some surprises. Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities said going into the report the trade guessed the biggest increase in wheat production would come spring wheat but USDA only increased production by seven million bushels over last month. Instead it was hard winter wheat that made the big increase 26 million bushels over July. All wheat production increased 38 million bushels over the July estimate.


"We also saw the exports increase by 25 million and feed residual usage increase by 10 million that did help with the increase in production and it did allow only a three million bushel increase into ending stocks for wheat at 663 million," Leffler said.   

Click Here to read more reaction from Tom Leffler.  Click Here for more analysis from Rich Nelson. 

USDA Forecasts Record Breaking Year for US Corn, Soybean Production 

America farmers are set to produce a record breaking corn and soybean crops this year. On Tuesday, the US Department of Agriculture released its crop production report forecast. USDA is predicting America's farmers will produce 14 billion bushels of corn and 3.8 billion bushels of soybeans.   

"The most interesting feature of today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report is the projected corn yield of 167.4 bushels per acre," Farm Bureau Deputy Chief Economist John Anderson said. "That is up from 165.3 bushels per acre a month ago, which pushes projected U.S. corn production to just over 14 billion bushels. That's a record."  

USDA lowered ending stocks for 2013 - 2014 by 65 million bushels to 1.181 billion bushels. USDA increased corn use for ethanol and increased exports. USDA estimated ending stocks for the 2014 - 2015 crop at 1.808 billion bushels.   

"Now is not the time for our federal policymakers to be cutting into the ethanol standard, imposing undue regulations or going slow on trade agreements," said NCGA President Martin Barbre. "Our farmers are doing their part, working hard and smart on their farms to bring in a good crop. It's time Washington removed obstacles and cleared a path so we can sell America's biggest and most versatile crop at a good and fair price." 


In response to the recent to the USDA report, Tom Buis, CEO of Growth Energy released the following statement: "It is clear from this report that the food versus fuel debate over the U.S. renewable fuel policy can be put to bed. Our farmers have once again proven we can produce abundant quantities of high quality food, feed, fiber and renewable fuel." 

Cotton Crop Output Improves Dramatically in Oklahoma in 2014- A Look at Spring Planted Crops in the State

Wheat production is forecast at 51.0 million bushels,unchanged from last month and down 52 percent from last year's production. An average yield of 17.0 bushels per acre is expected from 3.0 million harvested acres.

Production of corn for grain is forecast at 39.2 million bushels, down 13 percent from last year. An average yield of 145 bushels per acre is expected from 270,000 harvested acres.

Cotton production is forecast at 375,000 480 pound bales, up 144 percent from last year. An average yield of 818 pounds per acre is expected, up 227 pounds from 2013. Acres expected for harvest are at 220,000 acres.

Production of grain sorghum is forecast at 21.1 bushels, up 42 percent from 2013. An average yield of 64.0 bushels per acre is expected from 330,000 harvested acres.

Peanut production is forecast at 56.0 million pounds, down 5 percent from last year. An average yield of 3,500 pounds per acre is expected from 16,000 harvested acres.

Soybean production is forecast at 9.1 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2013. An average yield of 31.0 bushels per acres is expected from 295,000 harvested acres.  

Production of all hay is forecast at 6.4 million tons, up 28 percent from last year.

Alfalfa production, at 930,000 tons, is up 50 percent from 2013. Production of all other hay is forecast at 5.4 million tons and is up 25 percent from last year.

Go here to see more details of the 2014 Oklahoma crop production numbers versus 2013 found on the Oklahoma page of NASS.

Record Beef Prices Supported by Demand and PEDV

As cattle producers contemplate herd expansion, a University of Missouri Ag Economist recommends producers also think about herd management. Dr. Ron Plain was one of the featured speakers at the 24th Annual Southern Plains Beef Symposium in Ardmore Saturday. I interviewed Dr. Plain about what strategies producers should be thinking about. .


"My recommendation for those guys who plan to stay in the business, it's a good time to up your management and spend a few more dollars because those calves are worth a lot," Plain said. "Keeping your calving rate up, your conception rate up, get enough nutrition into the those old cows so they breed back, take care of those calves when they are born, because these kind of prices there are good profits to be had there."


This also includes pasture management. Plain says producers should think about fertility and liming pastures, cause converting grass into beef is a very profitable activity right now.

Click Here to read or to listen to my Beef Buzz with Ron Plain on how consumer demand and PEDV both are supporting cattle prices.

FDA Reports Positive Trends in Antimicrobial Resistance

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) yesterday released its National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) 2011 Executive Report, showing mostly decreasing antimicrobial resistance trends.


The annual NARMS Executive Report focuses on resistance to antibiotics that are considered important in human medicine as well as multidrug resistance (described as resistance to three or more classes of antibiotics), according to the FDA. Under the NARMS program, samples are collected from human, food producing animals and retail meat sources, and tested for certain bacteria, specifically non-typhoidal Salmonella, Campylobacter, E. coli and Enterococcus, to determine whether such bacteria are resistant to various antibiotics used in human and veterinary medicine.


Among the key findings:
-- Eighty-five percent of non-typhoidal Salmonella collected from humans, which includes Heidelberg, Hadar, Typhimurim, and Enteritidis serotypes, had no resistance to any of the antibiotics tested. (Non-typhoidal Salmonella refers to one of the 2,300 serotypes of Salmonella except for Typhi, Paratyphi A, Paratyphi B (tartrate negative) and Paratyphi C.)


-- During its 16-year history, NARMS has found Salmonella resistance to ciprofloxacin to be very low (less than 0.5% in humans, less than 3% in retail meat, and less than 1% in animals at slaughter). Ciprofloxacin, one of the most common antibiotics to treat Salmonella infections in humans, belongs to a group of drugs called fluoroquinolones which were ceased for use in poultry in 2005.  


Click Here to read more key findings and to find a link to the full report.   

Canola Conference 2014- Pest Management with Tom Royer

In a bad year for drought, the state's canola crop faced limited damage from insects. Speaking at the 2014 Canola Conference, Tom Royer, Oklahoma State University Cooperative Extension entomologist said insect pressure came on late in the growing season. I interviewed Royer about the pest issues of 2014. 


Royer said this year he found a new pest in the Harlequin bug. The bugs arrival was so late in the season and the drought stress was so intense that farmers didn't treat the bug, but he did find damage from the Harlequin bug feeding on pods.


In looking ahead to the 2015 canola crop, Royer says with a more normal growing season farmers will need to scout fields and be more aware of pest pressure.

Click Here to read about some new treatment options or to listen to my interview with Tom Royer.  

This N That- Remembering Steve Smola; Oklahoma Irrigation Conference Next Week and Big Iron Weekly Sale

Former Oklahoma Cattlemen Association President Steve Smola passed away this past Friday- and a memorial Mass is planned for this morning at Sts. Peter and Paul Catholic Church in Kingfisher.

Smola was President of the OCA in 2002-2003  and involved in a variety of other organizations, mainly tied back to the cattle industry here in the region.  

Here's the obituary for Steve Smola from the NewsOk website.

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Make plans to attend the Oklahoma Irrigation Conference on August 19th, 2014 at the Caddo-Kiowa Technology Center, Building 400 in Fort Cobb, Okla.


Topics include:  

Avoiding mistakes when installing a pivot system 

Using moisture sensors to schedule irrigation
How will the OWRB 50 year water plan relate to farmers who irrigate
Cell phone apps for running your pivot/well
Water issues affecting cotton producers 

More details are here in our Oklahoma Farm Report Calendar for August- check it out. 

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It's Wednesday- and that means the Big Iron folks will be busy closing out this week's auction items- all 242 of them- starting at 10 AM central time.     

Click Here for the complete rundown of what is being sold on this no reserve online sale this week.

If you'd like more information on buying and selling with Big Iron, call District Manager Mike Wolfe at 580-320-2718 and he can give you the full scoop.  You can also reach Mike via email by clicking here.