USDA Predicts Bigger US Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop in 2010Tue, 11 May 2010 8:17:25 CDT
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.46 billion bushels, down 4 percent from 2009. Expected area for harvest as grain or seed totals 31.8 million acres, down 8 percent from last year. Based on May 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 45.9 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels from the previous year.
Hard Red Winter, at 960 million bushels, is up 5 percent from 2009. Soft Red Winter, at 283 million bushels, is down 30 percent from last year. White Winter is up 7 percent from last year and now totals 215 million bushels. Of this total, 17.0 million bushels are Hard White and 198 million bushels are Soft White.
We talked just moments ago with Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities about both the Wheat Crop Estimates, as well as the regular monthly Supply Demand data that was also released this morning by USDA. Click on the Listen Bar below for our conversation. Click here for the USDA Supply Demand Data as released on Tuesday Morning May 11, 2010.
The Oklahoma Crop Estimate is well under the average guess made just last week by wheat crop tour scouts across Oklahoma. The USDA estimates that Oklahoma will produce 128.7 million bushels in 2010, with the same average yield per acre that the crop scouts came up with- 33 bushels per acre. The difference for Oklahoma comes in the expected number of acres that will be harvested- the tour of last week estimated harvested acres would be 4.2 million acres, while USDA expects just 3.9 million acres to be combined in Oklahoma this season. If realized, the 128.7 million bushels would be a 66% larger crop here in 2010 than in 2009, when we harvsted just 77 million bushels- and much of it was of a low quality.
In Kansas, USDA is slightly more optimistic than the Wheat Quality Tour that just concluded last week, with an estimate of 344 .4 million bushels of production seen in Kansas this year- versus the 333 million bushels projected by the average tour guess. USDA expects 42 bushels an acre with harvested acres expected to come in at 8.2 million acres in 2010.
The USDA is also very optimistic about the Texas wheat crop- predicting a 122 million bushel crop this year, versus 61 million bushels harvested in 2009.
Click here for the full Crop Production Report from USDA which includes this first look at the 2010 Winter Wheat Crop.
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