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Agricultural News

Minor Changes Seen From September in October Crop Production and WASDE USDA Reports

Sat, 10 Oct 2015 11:31:45 CDT

Minor Changes Seen From September in October Crop Production and WASDE USDA Reports The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and crop production reports Friday morning, and the agency forecast U.S. corn production would reach 13.56 billion bushels in 2015, well ahead of analysts’ estimates for 13.46 billion bushels. For the crop year ending in August 2016, the USDA forecasts a U.S. corn stockpile of 1.56 billion bushels, down from a stockpile of 1.73 billion bushels this past August.

Alan Brugler, who operates his own marketing and consulting firm, told AgWeb that incorporating the Farm Service Agency's data on acreage, which was released last month, was the main adjustment in this report. "The FSA acreage is the main influence here," Brugler said. "They did about what we expected. They cut the corn acreage by 400,000 acres."

USDA upped the average bushels per acre to 168 bushels- and that surprised many analysts- and the half bushel per acre increase offset some of production that was lost because of the acreage being trimmed.

Radio Oklahoma Ag Network's Leslie Smith talked with Tom Leffler after the report was issued- and he told RON that he felt the reduction in soybean acres was the most surprising number of the Crop Production report- as USDA trimmed the number of soybean acres to be harvested by 1.1 million acres. He agrees with Brugler that the acres dropped in the US corn crop was more in line with what was being expected.

For soybeans, USDA forecasts farmers will produce 3.89 billion bushels on 82.4 million acres – down 1.1 million from last month’s estimate – with an average yield of 47.2 bushels per acre as USDA raised their soybean yield estimate by 0.1 bu./acre.

All cotton production is forecast at 13.3 million 480 - pound bales, down less than one percent from last month and down 18 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 784 pounds per harvested acre, down 54 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is fo recast at 12.9 million 480 - pound bales, down 18 percent from 2014.

The 2015 Grain Sorghum crop is thirty two percent bigger than the 2014 crop- with this year's harvest expected to be 573 million bushels. Harvested acres are up 1.2 million acres from a year ago- and the bushels per acre prediction is up over seven bushels from the 2014 crop- and a tenth of a bushel increase from the USDA September report.

CLick here for the complete USDA Crop Production Report from October first data.

As for the latest World Agricultural Supply-Demand Estimates- otherwise known as WASDE- here are some of the highlights:


Projected U.S. ending stocks for 2015/16 are lowered 14 million bushels as decreased production more than offsets a decline in total use. Production for 2015/16 is lowered 84 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the NASS September 30 Small Grains 2015 Summary. Feed and residual use is lowered 20 million bushels reflecting the September 1 stocks that indicated lower-than-expected June-A ugust disappearance. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 850 million on a slow sales pace to date and continued lack of U.S. price competitiveness, particularly compared to Black Sea Countries and EU. The projected range for the 2015/16 U.S. season-average farm price is nar rowed 10 cents on both the high and low ends to $4.75 to $5.25 per bushel.


Projected 2015/16 U.S. feed grain production is down slightly this month with a small reduction for corn partly offset by in creases for barley and oats. Corn production is forecast 30 million bushels lower with harvested area lowered 437,000 acres. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-bushel-per acre increase in the national average corn yield to 168.0 bushels per acre. Estimated 2015/16 beginning stocks, from the September 30 Grain Stocks report, are nearly unchanged from last month’s projection. Small revisions to food, seed, and industrial use and trade, based on the latest data, boost 2014/15 feed and residual use 17 million bushels.
Projected U.S. corn usage for 2015/16 is unchanged this month. Ending stocks are projected 31 million bushels lower to 1,561 million. The 20 15/16 season-average corn price received by producers is projected 5 cents higher on both ends to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel.


U.S. oilseed production for 2015/16 is projected at 115.3 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3,88 8 million bushels, down 47 million with higher yields only partly offsetting reduced harvested area. The soybean yield is forecast at 47.2 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushels from the September forecast. Harvested area is reduced 1.1 million acres to 82.4 million . Soybean supplies for 2015/16 are projected 66 million bushels below last month with lower beginning stocks and production. Sunflowerseed and canola production are forcast higher on higher yields and harvested area.

U.S. soybean exports for 2015/16 are reduced 50 million bushels to 1,675 million on the slow pace of sales and increa sed competitor supplies. Soybean crush is projected at 1,880 million, up 10 million on higher domestic soybean meal disappearance, which is raised in line with an increase for 2014 /15. Soybean ending stoc ks for 2015/16 are projecte d at 425 million bushels, down 25 million. The soybean price is projected at $8.40 to $9.90, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and soybean oil price projections ar e also unchanged at $310 to $350 per short ton and 27.5 to 30.5 cents per pound, respectively.


The forecasts for total meat production in 2015 and 2016 are increased from last month. Beef production fo r 2015 is raised on larger forecast slaughter of fed cattle in the second half of 2015 and heavier carcass weights. The forecast for 2016 is raised as cattle slaughter and carcass weights in the first half are proj ected higher than last month. The pork production forecasts for both 2015 and 2016 are raised. The pace of hog slaughter in the remainder of 2015 is expected to be higher. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs estimated less of a decline in sows farrowing during June-August than indicated in prior intentions and farrowing intentions into early 2016 support an increase in forecast pork production for 2016. Broiler production is raised for 2015 as a larger third quarter level more than offsets a reduction for the fourth quarter, but the forecast for 2016 is reduced as broiler producers have slowed the pace of egg sets.

Beef imports are unchanged for 2015 and 2016. Beef exports for 2015 and 2016 are lowered as demand is projected to remain relatively weak. Pork export forecasts are unchanged, but a small increase is made to third-quar ter 2015 imports based on recent trade data. Broiler exports are reduced from last month as slow global demand is expected to continue for in the remainder of the year and into 2016.   

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month on current large supplies of market- ready cattle, weaker demand and competition from relatively large supplies of competing meats.   Hog prices are raised for both 2015 and 2016 as demand has firmed. Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 on relatively large broiler meat supplies. Turkey prices are raised for 2015 on current price strength, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged from last month. Egg prices for 2015 are lowered reflecting recent price declines, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged.

The complete WASDE reported as released October 9th can be reviewed by clicking here.

Oklahoma Crop details are being posted in a separate story here on the Oklahoma Farm Report.


Leslie Smith talks about October USDA reports with Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities
right-click to download mp3


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