From the Cattle Industry Convention- Don Close Talks Cattle Inventory and More With Ron HaysWed, 30 Jan 2019 07:34:00 CST
In talking with Don Close of Rabo Agrifinance on Tuesday- he was certain that we would not see a USDA Cattle Inventory report this week- and based on a check of the USDA NASS calendar on Wednesday morning- he is right- USDA has removed the Cattle Inventory report from the USDA calendar for January 31st- tomorrow- and in checking February- it is nowhere to be found at this point.
Close talked about the missed January Cattle on Feed Report and now missing Cattle Inventory Report that are casualties of the Partial Government Shutdown that ended this past Friday. Close tells Radio Oklahoma Ag Network's Ron Hays at the 2019 Cattle Industry Convention in New Orleans that we have had "soft data" that helps us calculate some of the missing information that would have been supplied this past Friday by USDA in the January Cattle on Feed Report. USDA missed the January 25th report- but has the February report currently listed on the NASS calendar to be released February 22nd.
As for the Cattle Inventory report- Close believes that it will take at least a couple of weeks for USDA to assemble the data that makes up that report- longer than that if they had not gotten requests for information out before the just concluded government shutdown was put in place.
He does believe that once that report comes out- whenever that may be- that it will be showing a slight expansion of the US Beef Cow herd as of January 1, 2019. The January 1, 2018 Beef Cow count was 31.7 million head. "I'm in the camp that I believe we have continued to expand. I believe it will be very very shallow...for the first half of 2018, we were continuing to see female retention." He adds that in the third and fourth quarters of 2018- the herd was being reduced to a limited degree. Close adds "when you go back and look at the cow data annualized- the heifer placements annualized- I'm in the camp of expansion."
He adds that his thoughts have always been a top end at this time for the US beef cow herd will be around 32 to 32.5 million head- and it may be the start of 2020 or even 2021 before we get to those levels.
Close and Hays also discuss the position that the US beef herd is in as we approach the spring of 2019- Don believes that we have more moisture to start the spring season than anytime in recent years- and that will bode well for pastures as they green up and for the production of hay- badly needed after the drawdown of stocks in the last few months.
You can listen to their complete conversation on today's Beef Buzz by clicking or tapping on the LISTEN BAR below.
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