Beef Buzz News
OSU's Derrell Peel Says We Could See at Least a 3-4% Decrease in the Beef Cow Herd in 2022
Tue, 26 Apr 2022 06:49:12 CDT
Oklahoma Farm Report's Ron Hays continues his conversation with OSU Extension Livestock Economist, Derrell Peel who sees a significant decline in cattle numbers for the remainder of 2022 due to the drought and high input prices.
"In the short run, we are maintaining cattle numbers and we know that a drought can actually cause beef production numbers to go up in the short run because you have to market more cattle," Peel said. "I think that is part of what we are seeing here in general."
Peel said beef cow slaughter so far in 2022 is up 18% in the first 14 weeks of the year. This is a very strong pace, Peel said, especially since it is almost May.
"The real drought impacts are going to hit in May, June and July, probably, so we could see a significant liquidation of cows as well," Peel said. "All of that says we may have lots of cattle in the market in the short run, but a really big hole at some point in time, down the road."
If you take the pace of beef cow slaughter we are on right now, and the number of replacement heifers that we started the year with, particularly heifers that were scheduled to calve, Peel said we get that breakdown. Peel added we are easily looking at a 3-4% decrease in the beef cow herd in 2022 and it could be more than that depending on what happens.
"This could be the biggest year-over-year decrease in beef cow numbers, probably since the mid-'70s when we came down off of the all-time peak numbers," Peel said.
The way it looks right now and with the drought conditions persisting, Peel said we could drop below the low we had in 2014, going into 2023, and set up some extremely tight numbers in 2023, 2024, and beyond.
"Supply will equal demand in the final analysis, but if supplies get really tight, it means that there is going to be a lot of pressure to ration limited supply and that is going to keep the price pressure up," Peel said. "Consumers are already paying a lot for beef, and this would suggest that except maybe here for the very short run, once we get beyond that, the pressure will continue for the foreseeable future."
Peel said for the second half of the year he sees the anticipated revenue for cattle producers playing out as predicted. The futures market has taken in a fairly strong uptrend in prices, Peel added, so our expectations for prices in general for 2022 have not changed.
"The challenge for profitability is clearly going to be on the cost side," Peel said. "We have got high feed costs; forage may be limited, and hay production will be limited and expensive."
To view the March Cattle on Feed Report, Click Here.
To listen to Ron's Previous conversation with Dr. Peel on the March Cattle on Feed Report, Click Here.
Listen to part two of Ron and Dr. Peel's conversation by clicking on the Listen Bar of this story.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
Listen to Ron Talk with Dr. Peel about Drought-Induced Herd Liquidation
right-click to download mp3
WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI
Beef News
January Cattle on Feed Report Three Percent Under Year Ago- Derrell Peel Says Tighter Supplies Will Be Around for Awhile Mon, 23 Jan 2023 05:15:04 CST
Derrell Peel Talks Latest Cattle on Feed Report- Showing Fewer Cattle on Feed, Lighter Placements and Stronger Marketings. Mon, 26 Dec 2022 08:19:00 CST
Kara Lee with Certified Angus Beef Tells Cattlemen 'Cut the Bull' Fri, 23 Dec 2022 14:30:39 CST
Beef Checkoff Utilizes Digital Marketing Techniques to Interact with Consumers Thu, 22 Dec 2022 16:02:51 CST
Beef Checkoff Research, Education, and Promotion Efforts Point Consumers to Beef Wed, 21 Dec 2022 16:15:46 CST
OSU Economist Derrell Peel Expects US Beef Export Strength to Continue Into the New Year Tue, 20 Dec 2022 08:00:35 CST
NPPC's Michael Formica Feeling Positive About Supreme Courts Upcoming Proposition 12 Decision Mon, 05 Dec 2022 10:08:27 CST
NCBA Fights to Improve Marketing Options for Cattle Producers Fri, 02 Dec 2022 09:58:28 CST
Chinese Consumers Continue to Grow Appetite for U.S. Beef Thu, 01 Dec 2022 09:23:49 CST
Merck Creates Value for Producers and Consumers with Technology and Biopharmaceuticals Wed, 30 Nov 2022 09:55:28 CST
NCBA’s Todd Wilkinson Ready to Fight Back Against Regulatory Overreach in the Cattle Industry Tue, 29 Nov 2022 10:13:33 CST
NCBA and PLC Call ESA Listing Plan of Lesser Prairie Chicken Punitive for Cattle Producers in Southern Plains Wed, 23 Nov 2022 14:51:02 CST
November Cattle on Feed Report Confirms October Pattern of Lower Placements and Tighter Cattle Numbers in Feedlots Tue, 22 Nov 2022 05:07:02 CST
Turning the Corner- OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Tighter Cattle Inventories into 2023 in Latest Cattle on Feed Report Mon, 21 Nov 2022 04:36:33 CST
Turning the Corner- OSU's Derrell Peel Sees Tighter Cattle Inventories into 2023 in Latest Cattle on Feed Report Mon, 21 Nov 2022 04:27:40 CST
Midterm Elections to Set Stage for What Can Be Expected in 2023 Farm Bill Mon, 07 Nov 2022 12:13:57 CST
USMEF's Dan Halstrom Remains Cautiously Optimistic about Strong Beef Demand Going Forward Thu, 03 Nov 2022 09:35:46 CDT
Economic Factors Create Hesitancy in Beef Plant Expansion Plans Wed, 02 Nov 2022 11:03:34 CDT
NCBA's Mike Simone Says Consumer Interest in Fake Meat is on the Decline Tue, 01 Nov 2022 11:41:02 CDT
Beef Remains Valued Product for Consumers as it Allows Them to Stretch their Dollar Mon, 31 Oct 2022 09:15:56 CDT
Hugh Aljoe Provides Methods to Begin and Maintain Good Land Stewardship Fri, 28 Oct 2022 09:30:13 CDT
Implement Soil Health Practices Now to Increase Forage Production when Rains Come Thu, 27 Oct 2022 15:14:07 CDT
Third Beef. It's What's For Dinner. 300 Promotes the Beef Industry on a National Level Wed, 26 Oct 2022 15:32:23 CDT
Latest Cattle on Feed Report from USDA Implies Fewer Pounds of Beef Available in 2023 Tue, 25 Oct 2022 10:17:53 CDT
OSU's Derrell Peel- Lower Placements and Smaller On Feed Number Highlight October Cattle on Feed Report Sun, 23 Oct 2022 12:45:37 CDT
Beef Checkoff Research Continues to Share Beef Sustainability Story with Consumers Fri, 21 Oct 2022 09:23:36 CDT
Beef Checkoff Research Works to Ensure Consumers Beef is a Product They Can Trust Thu, 20 Oct 2022 13:44:44 CDT
Odds for Significant Wheat Pasture Going Lower Daily in the Southern Plains Wed, 19 Oct 2022 14:35:46 CDT
NCBA Weighs in on California's Proposition 12 Tue, 18 Oct 2022 11:32:24 CDT
2022 Stockyards Steak Out Takes Oklahoma Beef to the Next Level Mon, 17 Oct 2022 11:09:07 CDT
Holding Onto Your Cow Herd a Little Longer is Projected to Pay Off, says Randy Blach Fri, 14 Oct 2022 08:14:05 CDT
Randy Blach Confident in Better Cattle Market Conditions Down the Road Thu, 13 Oct 2022 09:43:02 CDT
No Imports or Exports Would Result in a Smaller U.S. Beef Cattle Industry Wed, 12 Oct 2022 16:11:15 CDT
Derrell Peel Explains Why International Trade of Beef is Valuable Tue, 11 Oct 2022 08:19:29 CDT
Animal Agriculture Hopeful for a Win as U.S. Supreme Court Looks at California's Proposition 12 Mon, 10 Oct 2022 09:26:17 CDT
