At the Cattle Industry Convention- Cattlefax Predicts Lower Cattle Prices Across the Board for 2016-Thu, 28 Jan 2016 17:33:02
Cattle prices will likely average very close to where they started 2016- so says the Cattlefax team of analysts who presented their annual Cattle and Meat Protein Outlook that is considered one of the highlights of the Cattle Industry Convention. The 2016 edition, held Thursday morning in San Diego, reflected the sharp downturn that the industry experienced in the second half of 2015.
Kevin Good presented the actual beef and cattle price outlook for Cattlefax. Good told attendees that the composite beef cutout will average $218 per hundredweight in 2016, down 7.6% from the average for all of 2015. Good says that retailers will maintain the bargaining position over the rest of the industry that they secured in the middle of 2015. Beef prices will be impacted by plentiful supplies of competing meats- and that will weigh on the composite values- which Cattlefax sees as ranging from $214 to $220 per hundredweight in 2016.
For the Fed Cattle Market- Good sees a ten percent drop in average values for the year at $133 per hundredweight. Cattlefax says packers will stay profitable in 2016, while feeders will continue to lose money on the cattle they market. Cattlefax says to expect a range in the fed cattle marketplace from $130 to $135.
Yearling steers weighing 750 pounds will average $168 per hundred, off 18.8% from the average of 2015. Cattlefax sees a range of $165 to $170 per hundredweight for much of 2016.
Calf prices will likely fall twenty two percent in 2016 compared to 2015, with Cattlefax expecting a 550 pound medium and large frame number one steer ranging from $190 to $200 per hundredweight for all of 2016- the average they have picked is the midpoint of that range- $195.00 per hundredweight.
With calves worth less, bred cows will also see softer prices- after two years of averaging above $2,000 a head- the Cattlefax prediction for bred cows for 2016 is $1,950 per head. They add that they believe the trend for bred cows will take prices lower the next few years.
To hear Kevin Good offer an explanation on the fed, yearling and calf markets, click on the LISTEN BAR below for his thoughts at the Cattlefax Market Outlook Seminar.
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