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Agricultural News


U.S. Cattle Inventory Up Three Percent, Tom Leffler Says It's More Negative Than Trade Expected

Fri, 29 Jan 2016 16:29:11 CST

U.S. Cattle Inventory Up Three Percent, Tom Leffler Says It's More Negative Than Trade Expected Herd expansion continues to make strong progress in the U.S. The U.S. cattle inventory report released Friday showed the total cattle inventory was up three percent. Market Analyst Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities said all cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2016 totaled 92.0 million head. That was three percent above the 89.1 million head on January 1, 2015. He said the trade was looking for about two percent growth. Oklahomaís cattle inventory was up seven percent, Kansas was up six percent, Nebraska was up three percent and Texas was unchanged. Leffler said all categories were above year ago levels and some categories came in higher than trade expectations.


Total beef and dairy cows and heifers that have calved were estimated at 39.6 million head. That was three percent above the 38.6 million head on January 1, 2015. Beef cows came in at 30.3 million head. That was up four percent from a year ago. Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas had increases of four percent over a year ago and Missouri was up three percent. Milk cows came in at 9.32 million head. That was up slightly from the previous year.


All heifers 500 pounds and over as of January 1, 2016 totaled 19.8 million head. This was three percent above the 19.3 million head on January 1, 2015. Beef replacement heifers were estimated at 6.29 million head. That was up three percent from a year ago. Leffler said that was in line with trade expectations. Milk replacement heifers came in at 4.82 million head. That was up two percent from the previous year. Other heifers came in 8.71 million head. That was three percent above a year earlier.


All Calves under 500 pounds in the United States as of January 1, 2016 totaled 14.1 million head. That was four percent above the 13.5 million head on January 1, 2015. Steers weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 16.3 million head, up four percent from one year ago. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 2.14 million head, up two percent from the previous year.


Calf Crop Up 2 Percent


The 2015 calf crop in the United States was estimated at 34.3 million head, up two percent from last year's calf crop. Calves born during the first half of 2015 were estimated at 24.8 million head. That was up two percent from the first half of 2014. The calves born during the second half of 2015 were estimated at 9.50 million head, 28 percent of the total 2015 calf crop.


Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.2 million head on January 1, 2016. The inventory was up one percent from the January 1, 2015 total of 13.0 million head. Cattle on feed, in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head, accounted for 80.2 percent of the total cattle on feed on January 1, 2016. That was down one percent from the previous year. The combined total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots) was 25.9 million head. This was five percent above one year ago.


With this negative report, Leffler said itís too early to know if this cattle inventory report will be a damper on the market on Monday.


Click here to read the full U.S. Cattle Inventory Report from USDA.

   
   

Leslie Smith interviews Tom Leffler of Leffler Commodities
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