CattleFax's Randy Blach Breaks Down the Market Volatility of 2015Wed, 03 Feb 2016 05:24:12 CST
It's easy to forget here in the early days of 2016 that cattle prices were much higher in the first few months of 2015, before tumbling during the second half of this past year. The CEO of Cattlefax, Randy Blach, reminded Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays that the year 2015, at least when it comes to the cattle market, was two different stories.
Blach said there was the fed cattle market that averaged $160 in the first half of 2015 and then fed prices averaged $135 in the second half of the year. In looking at the nearly $25 hundred weight move in average prices through the year, he said there was a lot going on with the global economic slowdown, the drop in international beef demand and the strong U.S. dollar.
“Bottom-line is we ended up with four and half billion more pounds of protein to absorb in the U.S. marketplace than we had one year ago,” Blach said. “The single largest one year change in the history of our business.”
Blach said there was an eight percent increase in pork production during the year, a four to five percent increase in poultry production and poultry exports were down nearly 15 percent. Beef production was basically flat, as U.S. production was smaller, but beef imports were larger and beef exports were down 13 percent. In not having access to those foreign markets, he said that drove a lot more protein back to U.S. consumers.
In looking at the price outlook for 2016, the numbers have been in line with the prices seen in late 2015. Blach said the market has been incredibly volatile and the market continues to reject those lower price levels. Demand is very difficult to predict, but he continues to watch a slowing global economy and a good U.S. economy. CattleFax believes exports will improve in 2016 versus 2015.
Radio Oklahoma Network Farm Director Ron Hays featured Blach on the Beef Buzz. Click or tap on the LISTEN BAR below to listen to today's Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network- but is also a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show- and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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