Allendale Inc. Releases USDA Cattle on Feed & Cold Storage EstimatesThu, 19 May 2016 17:44:50 CDT
On Friday May 20, 2016 at 2:00 PM CST, USDA will release the monthly Cattle on Feed report, and on Monday May 23, 2016, USDA will release the monthly Cold Storage report. The following are our estimates for the two reports:
April Placements are expected to be 1.1% smaller than last year at 1.531 million head. There was one less weekday in April 2016 vs. 2015. This is the smallest April placement in four years. USDA's cattle feeding margin model showed a $123 per head profit for outgoing cattle in April for a very light 1,250 lb. animal. This officially ends the most severe period of cattle feeding losses in our database. Corn averaged $3.44 in Western Kansas in April ($3.40 in March, $3.80 in April 2015). April placements supply the September through November slaughter period.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 1.8% larger than April 2015 at 1.669 million. This was the second smallest April marketing since the data-series started in 1996. There was one less weekday and one more Saturday in April 2016 vs. the previous year. This artificially decreased the number by 3.7%.
Total Cattle on Feed as of May 1 is 0.1% larger than last year at 10.655 million. That is a decrease over the April 1 total that was +0.5% from one year ago.
Allendale projects a 630 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of April. The five-year average is 639 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 16 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average month to month change for April is a 23 million lb. decrease. Beef stocks, at 450 million lbs., are above the five-year average of 473. This represents a decrease of 17 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average change is a 2 million lb. increase.
Cattle on Feed
On Feed May 1 - 100.1
Placements - 98.9
Marketings - 101.8
Cold Storage - Pork Stocks April 30
Last Year - 701.083
Last Month - 614.148
Allendale Estimate - 630.367
Cold Storage - Beef Stocks
Last Year - 484.294
Last Month - 466.988
Allendale Estimate - 450.439
Cold Storage stocks are estimated in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year.
Source: Allendale, Inc.
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