May WASDE Offers Upbeat Look at Export Prospects for Corn and Soybeans- and Higher Meat Production AheadWed, 11 May 2016 03:50:08 CDT
The US Department of Agriculture's WASDE report did offer both old crop as well as new crop balance sheets for the major commodities. Rich Nelson of Allendale offers an overview of the major crop numbers- click play in the video box below.
Under the video box- we have the summary comments from the WASDE report for all major commodities.
CORN: Corn production for 2016/17 is projected at 14.4 billion bushels, up 829 million from 2015/16 and 214 million higher than the previous record in 2014/15. A 5.6-million-acre increase in corn plantings more than offsets a small reduction in yield. Corn supplies for 2016/17 are projected at a record 16.3 billion bushels, up 886 million from 2015/16, which more than offsets projected declines for sorghum, barley, and oats. U.S. corn use for 2016/17 is projected at a record 14.1 billion bushels, four percent higher than for 2015/16. Exports for 2016/17 are projected 175 million bushels higher than this monthís upwardly revised projection for 2015/16. Global corn consumption for 2016/17 is projected at a record 1,011.9 million tons, 43.0 million tons higher than in 2015/16.
SOYBEANS: Soybean production is projected at 3,800 million bushels, down 129 million from the 2015 crop on lower harvested area and trend yields. Supplies are projected at 4,230 million bushels, up 1.9 percent from 2015/16 with higher beginning stocks more than offsetting lower production. The U.S. soybean crush for 2016/17 is projected at 1,915 million bushels, up 35 million from 2015/16. Soybean exports are forecast at 1,885 million bushels, up 145 million from the revised 2015/16 projection. Sharply reduced stocks in South America this fall will limit competition during the first half of the marketing year.
WHEAT: U.S. wheat supplies for 2016/17 are projected up six percent from 2015/16 on higher beginning stocks and imports. All wheat production is projected at 1,998 million bushels, down three percent. The year-to-year decrease is due to a sharp reduction in planted area that more than offsets increased yields. Total U.S. wheat use for 2016/17 is projected up seven percent from the previous year on higher exports, feed and residual use, and food use. The 2016/17 exports are projected at 875 million bushels, up 95 million bushels from the previous yearís low level but still well below average. Global wheat supplies are projected to rise 2 percent from 2015/16 as increased beginning stocks more than offset a decline in production from the previous yearís record.
COTTON: A projected 2016/17 U.S. cotton crop of 14.8 million bales is expected to boost next seasonís ending stocks well above the beginning level. Production is anticipated to rise 15 percent from 2015/16, based on 9.6 million planted acres as indicated in Prospective Plantings, combined with below-average abandonment. Domestic mill use is projected stable at 3.6 million bales, while exports are expected to rise to 10.5 million. Ending stocks are projected at 4.7 million bales, or one-third of total use. The export forecast is reduced to 9.0 million bales and the world 2016/17 cotton projections show a decline in stocks of more than 6.0 million bales, as consumption exceeds production for the second consecutive season.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2017 is projected to be above 2016. Beef production is forecast higher as larger 2015 and 2016 calf crops are expected to support year-over-year increases in cattle placements in late 2016 and early 2017. Pork production is expected to increase with larger hog supplies and heavier carcass weights. Broiler production is forecast higher as the industry continues its current expansion path. Turkey production will continue to increase during 2017. Egg production for 2017 is forecast to expand as the egg sector continues to recover from the effects of HPAI.
Milk production for 2017 is forecast higher as improved forage availability and continued favorable feed costs are expected to support gains in milk per cow. Cow numbers are expected to remain near 2016 levels. Commercial exports on both a fat and skim-solids basis are forecast higher as expected tighter world supplies and increasing demand lead to expanded export opportunities. Imports are forecast lower as domestic production increases. With stronger domestic and export demand, cheese, nonfat dry milk and whey prices are forecast higher but butter prices are forecast lower.
RICE: U.S. 2016/17 all rice production is forecast at 231.0 million hundredweight, up 38.7 million from the previous year and the largest since 2010/11. The increase reflects larger area and a higher yield. U.S. 2016/17 total use is projected at 248.0 million hundredweight, up 12 percent from the previous year with both domestic and residual use and exports projected higher. Long-grain exports for 2016/17 are forecast at81 million hundredweight, up 12 million from the previous year and the largest in more than a decade. Global 2016/17 rice production is forecast at a record 480.7 million tons and total supply at 587.1 million tons, up 2.3 million from the previous year.
SUGAR: Beet sugar production for the 2016/17 October-September fiscal year is projected at 5.09 million short tons, raw value (STRV). Early planting of the 2016/17 sugarbeet crop implies above-average yields and a larger proportion of the crop harvested in August and September prior to the start of the coming fiscal year. The estimate for 2015/16 beet sugar production is raised to 5.064 million STRV. Cane sugar production for 2016/17 is projected at 3.620 million STRV. Sugar imports for 2016/17 are projected at 3.479 million STRV.
Click here for the complete WASDE report as released on Tuesday morning, May 10th.
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