Allendale, Inc. Releases Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage Report EstimatesTue, 21 Jun 2016 17:24:42 CDT
On Friday June 24 at 2:00 PM CT, USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports. The following are our estimates for the two reports:
May Placements are expected to be 9.1% larger than last year at 1.875 million head. There have now been four months in a row of above last year placements. This will help bulge supplies in Q3 and Q4. USDA's cattle feeding margin model showed a $33 per head profit for outgoing cattle in May for a very light 1,250 lb. animal. This now marks two months in a row of profits after 15 months of losses. Corn averaged $3.55 in Western Kansas in May ($3.44 in April, $3.67 in May 2015). May placements supply the October through January slaughter period.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 7.7% larger than May 2015 at 1.831 million. This was the second smallest May marketing since the data-series started in 1996. Last year was the record low of the data-series. There was one more weekday and one less Saturday than in May of the previous year which artificially inflated the estimate.
Total Cattle on Feed as of June 1 is 1.7% larger than last year at 10.751 million. That is an increase over the May 1 total that was +1.3% from one year ago.
Allendale projects a 635 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of May. The five-year average is 615 million lbs. Our estimate represents a decrease of 27 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average month to month change for May is a 24 million lb. decrease. Beef stocks, at 428 million lbs., are under the five-year average of 453. This represents a decrease of 24 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average change is a 15 million lb. decrease.
Cold Storage stocks are estimated in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year.
For questions and comments, please contact Rich Nelson, Chief Strategist at 800-262-7538 or email@example.com.
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