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Agricultural News


Record Corn and Soybean Crops Headline the 2016 August USDA Crop Production Report

Sun, 14 Aug 2016 15:51:27 CDT

Record Corn and Soybean Crops Headline the 2016 August USDA Crop Production Report The Friday USDA Crop Production Report resulted in record-breaking production for corn and soybeans as USDA pegs the corn crop at 15.15 billion bushels and soybeans at 4.06 billion bushels. In both cases, the USDA numbers are very aggressive compared to the pre report estimates, with both forecasts above the range of pre report trade guesses. Click here for the complete USDA Crop Production report that includes predictions for corn, soybeans, wheat, grain sorghum, cotton, peanuts and several more crops.


Predicted yields for corn and soybeans were also at record levels- which was the key component for the production records. USDA now believes that US farmers will harvest an average of 175.1 bushels per acre of corn- up seven bushels from the July forecast of 168 bpa. The soybean yield was increased 2.2 bushels per acre from July- and now is predicted at a record 48.9 bushels per acre.


Corn ending stocks for the 2016-17 crop year are projected at 2.4 billion bushels and if realized would be the highest since the 1987-88 crop year. The stocks-to-use ratio would hit 14.7%, compared to 12.5% for the 2015-16 crop.


Farm gate prices for both crops reflect the huge crops- USDA put the national average farm-gate price for the 2016-17 marketing year between $2.85 to $3.45 per bushel which is a 25-cent drop on both ends from the July estimate. The average farm-gate price for the 2015-16 crop was lowered to $3.60 per bushel. The farm price for soybeans for the 2016-17 marketing year will range from $8.35 to $9.85 per bushel, which is 40 cents lower than earlier projections. The soybean price for the 2015-16 marketing year is estimated at $8.95 a bushel.


Right after the reports were released on Friday morning, corn and soybean futures traded lower- about ten cents lower on corn and as much as twenty cents down on new crop soybeans. But, by the end of the Friday trading session- corn had recovered and December contracts settled at $3.33, up a penny and a quarrter. Soybeans trimmed their lossed as well- settling down just 2 and a quarters cents on the day for the November contract at $9.81 3/4.



For corn, the state by state breakdown provided some amazing numbers, with Illinois expected to see a two hundred bushel per acre corn crop on average this fall, and Iowa close behind at 197 bushels per acre. Closer to home- the Kansas corn crop is expected to yield 145 bushels per acre, Missouri 166 bpa, Oklahoma 135 bpa and Texas at 130 bpa.


For soybeans- the top states are all expecting yields in the mid to upper fifties. Nebraska comes closest to achieving that eleusive state average of sixty bushels per acre- with Nebraska predicted to produce 59 bushels per acre and will end up with the fifth largest state production total of 309 million bushels of soybeans. The two top states- Illinois and Iowa- will produce 560 and 550 million bushels of total production- and USDA pegs them both with a 57 bushel per acre yield. Yields in our region include Arkansas 47 bpa, Kansas 40, Missouri 48 bpa, Oklahoma 27 bpa and Texas 28 bpa.



Beyond the corn and soybeans- other crops of importance to our region:


WHEAT   


Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.66 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the July 1 forecast and up 21 percent from 2015. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 54.9 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last month and up 12.4 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 30.2 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 6 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter production, at 1.05 billion bushels, is up 1 percent from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 372 million bushels, is up less than 1 percent from the July forecast.


Kansas is easily the largest producer of winter wheat and hard red winter wheat, as USDA ups their expected bushels per acre forecast to 57 bushels per acre compared to the July forecast, which is a record for the state- and with 8.1 million acres harvested results in a 461.7 million bushel crop in 2016. Oklahoma estimates are the same in August as they were in July- with the state expecting a record 40 bushels per acre on 3.3 million harvested acres- that results in a 34% increase in production over 2015.

Wheat production for Texas is forecast at 95.2 million bushels, down 11 percent from last year. Yield per acre is expected to average 34.0 bushels, up 4.0 bushels from 2015. Harvested acreage for grain, at 2.80 million acres, is down 21 percent from the previous year.


You can view details of the Oklahoma and Texas wheat crop production by clicking here to review the NASS report on wheat production in the two states.


GRAIN SORGHUM   


USDA predicts a total grain sorghum crop of 474.68 million bushels, down from 596.75 million bushels produced in 2015, a twenty percent smaller crop in 2016 versus a year ago. The reduction is largely the result of eighteen percent fewer acres this season expected to be harvested at 6.456 million acres versus the harvest total of 7.851 million acres in 2015. Kansas remains the largest grain sorghum producing state, even with 300,000 fewer acres expected to be harvested this season versus last. The Kansas yield per acre is forecast by USDA to be down four bushels per acre this year compared to 2015, resulting in a 243.6 million bushel crop. Texas is the second largest milo producing state, with also a three hundred thousand acre drop in expected harvested acres this year at 2.15 million acres to be harvested in 2016- the Texas yield is actually expected to be four bushels better than in 2015 at 65 bushels per acre- with a final crop estimated at 139.75 million bushels.

Oklahoma is a distant third behind the two largest producing states- with 380,000 acres to be harvested this season versus 410,000 a year ago- with yields in 2016 expected to come in at fifty bushels per acre and a total production of 19 million bushels.


COTTON   

All cotton production is forecast at 15.9 million 480- pound bales, up 23 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 800 pounds per harvested acre, up 34 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 15.3 million 480 - pound bales, up 23 percent from 2015. Georgia, Mississippi and Arkansas all are predicted to have huge increases in total production versus a year ago- and most other cotton producing states look to have a bigger crop than a year ago as well.


Texas is easily the major producing state for cotton in the US, with roughly forty percent of the US production occuring in the Lone Star State. Texas is expecting a big jump in harvested acres this season, with 600,000 more acres expected to be havested this season in Texas versus the 2015 crop. The number of pounds of lint per acre is expected to be seventeen pounds less than in 2015- with the total production of cotton in 2016 predicted to be up ten percent than a year ago to 6.332 million bales.

According to the August USDA estimates- Oklahoma Upland Cotton production will total 510 thousand bales, 36 percent higher than 2015. Yield averaged 874 pounds per acre, compared with 876    pounds last year. Acreage harvested, at 280 thousand acres, is up 37 percent from last year.


You can read more about other crops produced in Oklahoma and Texas and their USDA projections based on August first data by clicking here.




   

 

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