Agricultural News
What to Expect in the Wake of Rising Carcass Weights This Fall
Thu, 18 Aug 2016 13:06:00 CDT
For the most part, feedlots have stayed fairly current in their cattle marketing and carcass weights have also been very manageable in 2016. However, carcass weights seem to be on the rise. According to Extension Livestock Economist Dr. Derrell Peel of Oklahoma State University, though, this is a completely predictable seasonal pattern. He says although the industry should keep an eye on the rising figures, it is probably nothing to worry about just yet.
"We expect to continue to increase through the fall here," Peel said. "They typically peak in October or November. I think that's the real key."
Peel says that if we have a more normal seasonal increase from here to the end of October, unlike the dramatic run-up the industry experienced in 2015, then we could be looking at running 10-15 pounds under last year. Peel says his concerns focus on what will transpire over the next several weeks.
"I think the fact that it is growing is not as much of a concern," Peel said. "But how fast its growing seasonally here in the next eight weeks or so, will be really critical."
With the industry placing more and more cattle in feedlots since February, Peel explained that a rise in numbers that supports increased beef production will be expected. However, he submits that we may offset some of that if carcass weights stay under year-over-year levels.
On the other hand, if last year's situation does repeat itself, Peel says we will then really see the full effects of the growing cattle numbers we see in the system right now. Adding to the mix of possibilities, are record projected grain crops across the board, which could potentially translate into a lower cost of gain at feedlots. This in turn could tempt feeders to be less aggressive in moving cattle.
"There's a risk in this but the danger of that really comes from other factors in and of itself," Peel said, "cheaper grain and that prospect is good for the cattle industry."
Listen to Dr. Derrell Peel and Radio Oklahoma Network's Ron Hays discuss the potential effects of rising carcass weights on today's Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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