Agricultural News
LMIC Analysis Shows Grocery Store Meat Prices Trending Lower
Sun, 04 Sep 2016 06:42:09 CDT
According to the latest analysis released on Friday by the Livestock Marketing Information Center, Grocery store meat prices were moving lower during July, generally, reflecting larger supplies available to consumers in recent months. Fresh beef prices were down six percent from a year ago, chicken prices were down three percent and pork prices were close to unchanged. The beef price in July 2015 was a record high value and since that time has declined in nine out of the twelve months.
Grocery store chicken prices peaked in October 2013 and annual average prices have trended lower since then. Pork prices in July 2015 were nine percent lower than in July 2014, due to a surge in pork production last year and have resisted any significant declines since then. Pork supply this year has been running close to year earlier volumes, lending support to stable retail pork values.
The seven cent decline in fresh beef prices was the biggest month-to-month decline since last December. From July to August last year, fresh beef prices at retail declined six cents and a decline similar to this could be possible again, give the declines in beef prices at the wholesale trade level. Choice beef carcass prices during the spring quarter were down 14 percent from the same quarter of 2015 and carcass price so far this summer are below the values that were in place at the end of this June.
Grocery store pork prices have been unusually stable this year with month to month changes since March staying in a three cent range. Last year there was an 18 cent range during these months and in 2014 there was a 30 cent range from March to July. The same price stability has not existed at the wholesale level, where the value of a hog carcass has traded a twelve cent range (based on monthly average), not that much different from the 15 cent price rage at wholesale from March to July 2015. The change in pork prices from July to August in both 2014 and 2015 was up seven cents. That kind of change is not probable this year due to the price competition from beef and chicken.
Grocery store chicken price changes from July to August during 2014 and 2015 were up one cent and unchanged, respectively. A similar situation is in place for this August and probably for September, as well. Frozen inventories of chicken at the beginning of August were up seven percent from a year earlier. This is the largest August 1 inventory of frozen chicken since 2002. The crux of the problem is wings, with frozen inventories up 58 percent from a year ago, and breast meat inventories that are up 20 percent. Marketing efforts to move these products should keep a lid on retail prices. The 4 million pound net in-movement of chicken into freezers during July was the smallest increase for that month since 2012, but frozen inventories were already large and need to decline in coming months as consumer demand for chicken tends to wane, seasonally, late in the year.
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