Agricultural News
Allendale Sees Big Jump in Placements and Marketings Compared to Year Ago in Upcoming Cattle on Feed Report
Thu, 22 Sep 2016 15:09:44 CDT
On Friday, September 23rd at2:00PM CT, USDA will release their monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports. The following are our estimates for the two reports:
August Placements are expected to be 13.1% larger than last year at 1.846 million head. This was the largest August placement in four years. It also represents seven months in a row of higher than last year placements. USDA's cattle feeding margin model showed a $72 per head loss for outgoing cattle in August for a very light 1,250 lb. animal. Corn averaged $2.80 in Western Kansas in August ($2.76 in July, $3.69 in August 2015). August placements supply the January through April slaughter period.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 12.3% larger than August 2015 at 1.783 million. This was the largest July marketing in three years. There were two more weekdays in August 2016 vs. 2015 and one less Saturday. This artificially increased the number by 3.8%.
Total Cattle on Feed as of September 1 is 1.9% larger than last year at 10.173 million. That is an increase over the August 1 total that was +1.6% from one year ago.
Allendale projects a 620 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of August. The five-year average is 556 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 20 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average month to month change for August is a 13 million lb. increase. Beef stocks, at 468 million lbs., are above the five-year average of 422. This represents a decrease of 1 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average change is a 12 million lb. decrease.
Cold Storage stocks are estimated in million pounds while Cattle on Feed is estimated as a percentage compared to last year.
Source- Allendale
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