Agricultural News
Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates by USDA Well Above Trade Expectations in August Crop Numbers
Thu, 10 Aug 2017 11:51:45 CDT
Corn production is forecast at 14.2 billion bushels, down 7 percent from last year. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 169.5 bushels per acre, down 5.1 bushels from 2016. If realized, this will be the third highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.5 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but down 4 percent from 2016. The corn crop estimate is well above what the pre report trade estimate was pegged at- 13.7 billion bushels with a yield of 166.2 bushels per acre.
Soybean production is forecast at 4.38 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last year. Based on A ugust 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 49.4 bushels per acre, down 2.7 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record high 88.7 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but up 7 percent from 2016. Planted area for the Nation is estimated at a record high 89.5 million acres, also unchanged from June.
Markets were shocked at both the higher than expected corn and soybean yields and production. Corn and soybeans fell quickly on the bearish news. With the report out at 11 AM Central- prices just before 12 noon show corn is down 11 cents, soybeans down 27 cents, and wheat is down 13 cents.
All cotton production is forecast at 20.5 million 480- pound bales, up 20 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 892 pounds per harvested acre, up 25 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 19.8 million 480- pound bales, up 19 percent from 2016. Pima cotton production is forecast at 770,000 bales, up 35 percent from last year.
Cotton traders are seeing the cotton numbers as bearish as well, with current cotton prices in New York down 276 points, basis December.
All wheat production, at 1.74 billion bushels, is down 1 percent from the July forecast and down 25 percent from 2016. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 45.6 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushel from last month and down 7 bushels from last year.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.29 billion bushels, up 1 percent from the July 1 forecast but down 23 percent from 2016. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 50.0 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last month but down 5.3 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.8 million acres, unchanged from last month but down 15 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter production, at 758 million bushe ls, is up less than 1 percent from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 306 million bushels, is up less than 1 percent from the July forecast. White Winter, at 223 million bushels, is up 3 percent from last month. Of the White Winter production, 18.8 million bu shels are Hard White and 204 million bushels are Soft White.
The Oklahoma and Kansas winter wheat crops were left at the same production levels as was seen in the July Crop Production report. Oklahoma is predicted to have harvested 90.75 million bushels with a yield of 33 bushels per acre. The Kansas crop remains at 324.3 million bushels on a yield of 47 bushels per acre.
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