Allendale Predicts Largest September Total Cattle on Feed in Five Years in Pre-Report EstimateTue, 19 Sep 2017 14:49:09 CDT
The following are our estimates for the coming Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports:
August Placements are expected to be 7.1% smaller than last year at 1.746 million head. This is being compared against a large August 2016 number that was 15% over 2015. A second factor is that cattle feeders flipped to losses for August marketed cattle. K-State sees breakevens for September delivery fed cattle at $113. That rises to $120 for October marketings and up to $124 by December. August placements supply the February through June slaughter period.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 4.9% larger than August 2016 at 1.960 million. This was the largest August total in five years. This was no calendar adjustment this month.
Total Cattle on Feed as of September 1 is 2.10% over last year at 10.352 million. This is the largest September 1 total in five years.
Allendale projects a 568 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of August. The five-year average is 588 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 12 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average month to month change for August is a 16 million lb. increase. Beef stocks, at 436 million lbs., are over the five-year average of 431. This month's estimate represents an increase of 5million lbs. from the previous month. The five-year average shows a 13 million lb. drawdown for this month.
Source - Allendale, Inc.
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