Jim Robb Advises Producers Not to be Overly Enthusiastic, Despite the Markets Strong PerformanceWed, 27 Sep 2017 10:47:37 CDT
Bigger placements and bigger marketings showed up in the most recent Cattle of Feed report, released last week by the United States Department of Agriculture. Overall, the on feed numbers were up 3.6 percent compared to a year ago - which really is more or less on track with longer term trends, the outlook on gradually increasing cow herd numbers and estimates on the size of future calf crops. Looking at calf prices, though, the average price for 500 - 600 lb. feeder steers in Oklahoma (currently at $158.92, according to USDA’s Market News Service for the week of September 22, 2017), although down about $5 - 6.00 from the week before, is up $16 - 17.00 from a year ago. Jim Robb of the Livestock Marketing Information Center says he believes the markets will continue to hold a premium over last year, all fall and into the near future.
“We’re fully $20/cwt. above a year ago this past week,” he said. “Maybe as we work into the 4th Quarter we’ll be $15 or so per cwt. higher than last year. But we want producers to fully recognize that the 2017 calf crop is bigger than 2016. And 2018 will be bigger than 2017.”
Robb says, in this kind of environment, the markets have performed remarkably well with meat rapidly moving through the system and exports staying aggressive, too. While he claims this is definitely a different year compared to last year’s situation, Robb advises not to be overly enthusiastic, as the already large supply side of market fundamentals is projected to continue to grow with larger calf crops on the horizon.
“This does not appear to be like last year where the fed cattle market and the meat market and all those were churning, and really not able to keep up with the growing supplies,” Robb said. “I don’t think it’s last year being repeated, but again, we have to recognize where we are cyclically in terms of the overall herd numbers.”
Listen to Jim Robb of the LMIC brief Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays, on the current market situation compared to the previous year, on today’s Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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