Latest Hogs and Pigs Report Confirms US Pork Supply Continues to GrowFri, 29 Sep 2017 06:04:39 CDT
The Thursday Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report from USDA shows that there were 73.5 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms on the first of September- up two percent from September 2016, and up 3 percent from June 1, 2017.
Of the 73.5 million hogs and pigs, 67.5 million were market hogs, while 6.09 million were kept for breeding. Between June 2017 and August 2017, 33.0 million pigs were weaned on U.S. farms, up 2 percent from the same time period one year earlier.
From June 2017 through August 2017, U.S. hog and pig producers weaned an average of 10.65 pigs per litter.
U.S. hog producers intend to have 3.07 million sows farrow between September and November 2017, and 3.02 million sows farrow between December 2017 and February 2018.
While estimates were higher than expected, the increase “won’t alter price expectations much,” says Ron Plain, professor emeritus, University of Missouri-Columbia.
Seasonal trends will still still rule the coming year. Plain estimates fourth quarter prices to range from $50-$52 cwt; first quarter 2018, $58-$62; second quarter $68-$72; third quarter $67-$71.
“The market has given producers ample opportunity to lock in profitable margins,” says Altin Kalo, senior analyst, Steiner Consulting Group, Merrimack, NH. Lower feed costs have helped create a profitable environment for growth.
While focus is often on production increases, Kalo adds, a lot of the pork supply is getting used up. “It is taking some lower prices to get that done,” he says, but it’s not hitting back onto the producer. Growth in export demand is a large factor. “Demand for pork continues to be good and it’s allowing producers to remain profitable through this expansion.”
Plain and Kalo were featured in a media teleconference hosted by the Pork Checkoff.
Iowa continues to be the largest hog inventory state, with 22.9 million hogs as of September first. North Carolina and Minnesota had the second and third largest inventories with 9.20 million and 8.20 million head, respectively, while Illinois has just over five million hogs- North Carolina, Minnesota and Illinois together equal the hog numbers found in Iowa.
Oklahoma remains a significant sow state, with the fifth largest sow herd in the country. The Oklahoma sow herd was the same size September first of this year versus last year with 455,000 sows counted by USDA. The total hog inventory in the state of 2.23 million head is the ninth largest hog count by state in the US. In recent years, Oklahoma has been trending toward more baby pig production, shipping those baby pigs to the midwest where feed grains are in greater abundance.
Click or tap here for the complete report from USDA as released on Thursday afternoon.
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