Cattle on Feed a Bearish Surprise with Placements Five Percent Above Trade ExpectationsSat, 21 Oct 2017 10:31:50 CDT
The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report is being called a bearish surprise, with the placement numbers well above the average pre report guess- thirteen percent up from a year ago versus the average per report guess of eight percent. The on feed number as of October first was also higher than what analysts were expecting at five percent above the on feed numbers of October First of 2016.
After the report was released, Oklahoma Farm Report's Ron Hays talked with Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel, who told him "we knew it was going to be a bigger number" and that "we know that there is more cattle out there- we've been seeing larger auction volumes. In Oklahoma in particular, I wasn't sure whether those were cattle that going back out to pasture getting ready for winter grazing- it would appear that now that a significant number of those cattle were headed for the feedlots."
Peel and Hays talked about the on feed numbers and their implications for cattle prices the balance of this year and into 2018. They also talked about stocker budgets and what this latest Cattle on Feed report tells us about the number of beef cows in our US cattle herd when USDA gives us the January first estimate at the end of January.
You can hear the complete conversation by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.
As for the complete set of monthly and quarterly numbers in the report released on Friday, click or tap here. And here is the summary of the monthly numbers on the front page of the USDA Report-
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.8 million head on October 1, 2017. The inventory was 5 percent above October 1, 2016. The inventory included 6.93 million steers and steer calves, up 2 percent from the previous year. This group accounted for 64 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 3.88 million head, up 13 percent from 2016.
Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.15 million head, 13 percent above 2016. Net placements were 2.09 million head. During September, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 405,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 340,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 490,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 515,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 285,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 115,000 head.
Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.78 million head, 3 percent above 2016. Other disappearance totaled 58,000 head during September, 38 percent above 2016.
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