Based on Available Info, KSU's Glynn Tonsor Predicts Potentially Profitable Year for Cow/Calf SectorThu, 10 Jan 2019 10:12:24 CST
Among those who follow the cattle markets, there is universal concern about exactly what is going to be happening over the next week or so in regard to the ongoing partial government shutdown. The inability of Congress and President Trump to agree on the terms of a new spending bill, has resulted in nearly one-fourth of the federal government to be furloughed until such time this political impasse can be resolved. This of course, has affected operations at the United States Department of Agriculture. The worry that exists in respect to halted USDA functions, is that the industry may be either delayed or completely denied access to important information in some of USDA’s regular reports that have scheduled release dates quickly approaching. Depending on how long the shutdown actually continues, it is possible the reports in question will either be published at an alternate date or if significant time has lapsed - even scrapped all together. Cattle market watcher, Dr. Glynn Tonsor of Kansas State University says that while it is good news that some of the market data reports continue to flow - such as wholesale boxed beef trade and auction barn sales - other critical data is in jeopardy.
“One of the most important reports that comes out for the cattle complex is the January Cattle Inventory Report. That’s when we get an update on the size of heifer retention and that gives us an idea of how big the herd will be in the future,” Tonsor said. “That’s scheduled to come out at the very end of January. It’s to be determined if that occurs…”
While the report would offer greater insight into what producers can expect for the year ahead, Tonsor explains that fortunately, other resources are still available that might help those in the industry who may be trying to organize plans and make decisions for their businesses. For instance, the website Tonsor himself runs, www.BeefBasis.com, is one tool he says producers might find very helpful. According the information he has compiled, analyzed and published to the website, it appears there may be some opportunity for money to be made by producers during 2019, here across the Southern Plains.
“Currently, we’re basically projecting a cash price in the upper $160s…,” he said. “Big picture context: that’s a little bit lower than in 2018. But, not much. So, if realized and if costs of production don’t change much - we’d be setting up for a small profit for the typical cow/calf producer in 2019.”
Listen to Tonsor offer his cattle market expectations for 2019, with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays, on today’s Beef Buzz.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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