Kim Anderson Says He's Not as Bullish on the Price of Wheat as He Was a Couple of Weeks AgoThu, 10 Jan 2019 15:13:49 CST
This week on SUNUP! - Host Lyndall Stout is again joined by Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson to discuss the current status of the grain market. In this week’s episode, Anderson will address how the closure of several USDA offices due to the ongoing partial government shutdown is affecting markets.
“The market runs on information,” Anderson explains. “The players in the market use that information to determine if they are going to buy or sell - and that drives prices. The USDA has the best information available to the market and without those numbers - the market is not as efficient as it would be if those offices were open and the USDA was releasing the numbers.”
For example, USDA was expected to release its Winter Wheat Seeded Acres Report, but has yet to do so. However, pre-report estimates by industry analysts have come out with their own.
Based on those numbers, Anderson reports that the estimate for all winter wheat seeded acres this year is at approximately 32.2 million acres. That number is down slightly from last year’s 32.5 million acres. Estimated HRW acres are figured at 22.7 million acres, down from last year’s 23.2 million acres. Finally, SRW acres are estimated at 6 million for the year, slightly higher compared to the previous year’s total of 5.9 million acres.
“I think overall with HRW, we’ve got less acres than last year and a lot of these acres are in Kansas,” Anderson remarked. “I think that’s positive news for our wheat prices.”
Prior to the New Year, Anderson was fairly optimistic that wheat prices this year would grow stronger closer to harvest. However, his outlook has dampened with developing news from Russia, which has raised its beginning wheat stocks suggesting the country has even more exportable wheat that previously thought. This will continue to displace American competitiveness in the global wheat market. Russia has also indicated that it has upped its production for this year, another negative sign for US wheat producers.
In addition to this, India, which typically does not export wheat, is expected to harvest a record or near record crop. If realized, India could potentially enter the global market this year during the April/May timeframe - adding further pressure to American competitiveness in the marketplace.
You can watch their visit tomorrow or Sunday on SUNUP- but you can hear Kim's comments right now by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.
Beyond Lyndall's weekly chat with Dr. Anderson- the SUNUP crew has a very full lineup for your viewing this weekend:
This week, we get a recap of the 2018 cotton crop from Seth Byrd and learn about the upcoming cotton webinar.
- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk has advice for the 3 stages of calving.
- Dave Lalman demonstrates how hay loss is impacted by different feeder rings.
- Paul Beck explains why it is important to rotate locations for feeding hay in pastures.
- In the Mesonet weather report, Wes Lee shows us how the saying “it’s not how much rain you get, but when you get it” played out in 2018. Gary McManus is excited to show a blank drought monitor for the first time since 2016.
- Finally, in Food Whys, Darren Scott explains the difference between dietary supplements and drugs.
Join us for SUNUP:
Saturday at 7:30 a.m.
Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
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