Kim Anderson Says New Developments May Delay Higher Wheat Prices Until Harvest SeasonThu, 24 Jan 2019 16:19:47 CST
As the government shutdown continues, the flow of information consumed by the market has been limited, though according to Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson, if this situation had to happen - it could not have happened at a better time.
This week on SUNUP - Anderson joins Host Dave Deeken again to explain how recent inactivity in the marketplace has suppressed the impact of the effects of the government shutdown. With most federal employees furloughed, much of the information and data regularly supplied by the US Department of Agriculture has been abandoned for the time being. This has left only independent surveys conducted by industry firms for traders to rely on.
“Our information is limited,” Anderson remarked, “but it’s enough to see what’s going on in the markets.”
Anderson reports that currently, wheat markets have barely moved in a narrow 11 cent range for weeks now. He contends the only way to break from this sideways price pattern is for foreign export demand to build in the global market. Unfortunately, that is not likely to happen until Black Sea Region suppliers run out of exportable wheat. Recent reports, though, suggest that both Russia and Ukraine are nearing their limits. The expectation now is that these countries will exhaust their export supplies by March.
However, new complications have arisen with large crops anticipated in India and Pakistan, which begin their harvests in the March period. In addition, Australia and Argentina have just finished their harvest seasons. Australia came in below its average crop size at 625 million bushels. Argentina has offset Australia’s loss in production though, coming in above its average with 700 million bushels. Given these developments, it seems the US could face increased competition by the time foreign export demand begins to swell.
“So, there is the possibility that demand may not pick up until we get a lot closer to harvest,” Anderson said. “Then we should see some price increases.”
You can watch their visit tomorrow or Sunday on SUNUP- but you can hear Kim's comments right now by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.
Beyond Deeken’s weekly chat with Dr. Anderson- the SUNUP crew has a very full lineup for your viewing this weekend:
This week on SUNUP we learn from Rodney Jones about resources for ag producers during the federal government shutdown.
- Then, Dave Lalman talks about national trends in weaning weights of cattle, as part of a study with Oklahoma State University, Kansas State University and Auburn University.
- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk explains the dangers of stage two calving lasting too long.
- Dr. Barry Whitworth has information about African swine fever and how it is transmitted among swine.
- Brian Arnall talks about the importance of soil sampling at the correct depths.
- In the Mesonet weather report, Wes Lee explains the Cattle Comfort Index and the data that goes into it. Gary McManus says although it seems like it has been cold in January, we actually have been warmer than average.
Join us for SUNUP:
Saturday at 7:30 a.m.
Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
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