Kim Anderson Remains Optimistic About the Price of Wheat, Following Yet Another Dip in the MarketsThu, 14 Mar 2019 18:17:11 CDT
This week on SUNUP - Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson joins host Dave Deken to review the wheat market over the past month and to offer his advice for producers based on the situation at hand.
According to Anderson, with a dollar now shaved off the KC July, wheat prices in Oklahoma are down roughly $1.80 with an average basis across the state at a -20 cents.
Anderson says many things can be blamed for this continuing downward trend, but in particular identified managed money funds. Speculators of SRW have been short over 72,000 contracts, equal to roughly 362 million bushels. Funds are record short currently in HRW by almost 47,000 contracts or 234 million bushels. Anderson explains as funds ran short in an environment of tight volumes, prices were driven down. In addition, Anderson says the USD climbed over 97 percent on the index, which has since come off that high some - which he believes is behind a brief rally that supported a 23 cent positive price move in just one day in the market.
Given the current environment, though, with an average price in Oklahoma of $4.30 for forward contracted wheat, Anderson says it is not really worth committing to yet - remarking that there is still a lot that can happen between now and harvest. But, with First Hollow Stem arriving, many producers need to make their decision of whether or not to pull cattle off their wheat. Though many are probably still trying to decide what would be more financially beneficial at this point - either grazing it out or harvesting. Anderson’s advice is to do what makes sense for you.
“Think of it like this, are you a cattleman or are you a wheat producer?” he said. “It boils down to what do you like to do and what does your pencil say you can do.”
You can watch their visit tomorrow or Sunday on SUNUP- but you can hear Kim's comments right now by clicking on the LISTEN BAR below.
This week on SUNUP, Brian Arnall tells us why there still is time to top-dress, but that window is closing.
- Then, Jason Warren explains how recent rain across the state is helping soil profiles and how producers can estimate moisture in their own soil profile.
- In the Mesonet weather report, Wes Lee looks at statewide rainfall amounts, compared to averages. Gary McManus also shows us what parts of the state saw their first significant rainfall in nearly two months.
- Derrell Peel says there are seasonal peaks in the cattle markets coming, and how producers can take advantage of them.
- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk explains why it is important to track twins born into the herd.
- Jerry Fitch tells us why hair sheep are suited for Oklahoma and Darin Annuschat shows us how they compare to wool sheep.
- Finally, in Food Whys, Darren Scott walks us through the difference between air fryers and deep-fat fryers.
Join us for SUNUP:
Saturday at 7:30 a.m.
Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
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