Allendale Estimates Upcoming USDA Report to Show a 2.8 Percent Increase in Total Cattle on FeedTue, 21 May 2019 11:43:48 CDT
The following are Allendale, Inc.'s estimates for the coming Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports.
April placements are expected 12.9% over last year at 1.914 million head. This would be a record placement for any previous April since the current data-series began in 1996. This now marks three months in a row of above last year placements. It helps make up for the low placements noted from September through January. April placements supply a portion of the October through December finished cattle supply. Breakevens for April placements, finished cattle for Q4, average $127 according to Kansas State University models.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total in April at 6.4% over last year for a total of 1.918 million. This is the largest April marketing in eleven years. There was a calendar adjustment this month adding numbers by 4.0%.
Total Cattle on Feed as of May 1 is 2.8% over last year at 11.886 million. This is a record May 1 number since the data-series started in 1996.
Allendale projects a 623 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of April. The five-year average is 629 million lbs. Our estimate represents an increase of 13 million lb. from the previous month. The five-year average month to month change for April is a 26 million lb. increase.
Beef stocks, at 441 million lbs., are below the five-year average of 457. This month’s estimate represents a decrease of 10 million lbs. from the previous month. The five-year average for this month is a 3 million lb. decrease.
Source - Allendale, Inc.
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