Allendale Estimates Suggest Upcoming On Feed Report will Show Record July 1 Total with Lower PlacementsTue, 16 Jul 2019 15:58:20 CDT
The following are Allendale, Inc.'s estimates for the upcoming Cattle Inventory, Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports.
The bi-annual Cattle report, known unofficially as Cattle Inventory, is a survey of the base cow/calf producer.
This month’s report gives a complete breakdown of cattle in the U.S. as of July 1. The industry uses it to shed light on long term expansion or contraction changes.
Allendale's projections for this report suggest All Cattle and Calves will come in just under the previous year at 99.9% or 102.895 million head. Beef Cows at 99.9% of last year at 32.370 million head. Steers Over 500 lbs. estimated just over last year at 100.3% or 14.544 million head. If realized, Allendale's estimate would put the July 1 Cattle on Feed total at 101.1% for 13.446 million head.
For the Cattle on Feed report, Allendale is estimates June placements will arrive at 6.8% under last year at 1.671 million head. This would be the lowest May placement in three years. Falling fed cattle prices and rising feed costs inhibited buying activity. June placements supply a portion of the December through March finished cattle supply. Kansas State University estimates needed fed cattle price for breakevens during that period at $126.
Allendale anticipates a Marketing total in June of 1.7% under last year at 1.972 million. This is the lowest June marketing in four years. There was a 3.8% lowered calendar adjustment this month.
Total Cattle on Feed as of July 1 is 0.9% over last year at 11.382 million. This is a record July 1 total since the current data-series started in 1995.
For Cold Storage, Allendale projects a 594 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of June. The five-year average is 576 million lbs. Our estimate represents a decrease of 34 million lbs. from the previous month. The five-year average month to month change for June is a 36 million lb. decrease.
Beef stocks, at 389 million lbs., are below the five-year average of 432. This month’s estimate represents a decrease of 15 million lbs. from the previous month. The five-year average for this month is a 6 million lb. decrease.
Source - Allendale, Inc.
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