OSU's Kim Anderson Talks about the Rally in Wheat Prices this Week and the Potential for MoreThu, 19 Sep 2019 17:23:37 CDT
In his weekly visit with SUNUP host Dave Deken this weekend, Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson talks about the rally in wheat prices this week.
"I think we bottomed out, those down trends started in late July, early August, in corn, wheat and soybeans," Anderson said. "If you look at corn, it has rallied about $.40/bu since the first of September, beans is up there about the same. And wheat is up $.30/bu."
He says he thinks the market has broke the short run down trend. And he thinks the market has hit the bottom on most of the other crops.
"If you look at the latest World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), I think the market is getting a little more comfortable with what the corn production is going to be," he said. "So I think that is already in the market now that corn harvest is going on. The wheat harvest moved up into the northern U.S. and Canada. So we are about 85% done around the world."
He says the market has better information when it comes to the supply in world. However, he doesn't know if the wheat prices will rise knowing harvest is almost complete.
"The Black Sea area controls the price for wheat," Anderson said. "Ukraine and Kazakhstan are done and Russia is about 80% done with only spring wheat left. We know the Black Sea stocks are going to be tight."
With the Black Sea region exporting so much of their crop, if anything happens in the market, Anderson thinks wheat prices will jump. But we won't know that until it happens, he added.
"Unless we have some surprises, and I don't think we are going to see anything out of the Black Seal," he said. "I don't think we are going to see anything out of Canada or the U.S. If we don't see any surprises in Argentina or Australia, I think we are going to have higher prices as we go into December. Possibly even up to $4.00/bu."
This week on SUNUP, we're excited to learn about the Oklahoma State University Wheat Improvement Team's new wheat variety, OK Corral. Brett Carver tells us how this beardless wheat variety gives dual-purpose producers options after grazing.
- Then in the Mesonet weather report, Wes Lee shows us how the recent rains impacted areas of the state ready to plant wheat. He also explains the many ways rain is measured across Oklahoma.
- John Weir has information for about preparing for plant dormancy, ahead of wildfire season.
- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk explains why body condition can impact breeding effectiveness of second year heifers.
- Kim Anderson says with 80% of the world wheat crop harvested, the wheat markets may have bottomed out and we could see small rallies ahead.
- Derrell Peel says lightweight stocker prices have been weak, but are expected to rebound as we move to October.
- Finally, Dr. Barry Whitworth has information about how to spot the sore mouth virus and how it can impact livestock.
Join us for SUNUP:
Saturday at 7:30 a.m.
Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
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