Better Times Ahead for Cow/Calf Producers Says LMIC Senior Economist Jim RobbFri, 04 Oct 2019 07:02:16 CDT
Jim Robb is senior economist at the Livestock Marketing Information Center. He recently shared his outlook on cattle prices for the new year. But, to understand where we are headed into 2020, he says we must first understand where we have been.
“As we look at 2019, our total commercial production is going to be up about 1.2% year-over-year and we’re going to have fed cattle prices down 2.2%,” he explained, pointing out that the 4Q of this year will be the largest year-over-year decline due to the recent packing plant fire. “But, as we look ahead to 2020, we expect beef production to be up only 1%. That’ll be the smallest increase since 2015, so we’re looking at less than a 1% increase in beef output in 2020, and that gives us in terms of fed cattle actually a year-over-year increase in prices.”
Despite Robb’s positive outlook, he admits this picture can change rather quickly. He contends though that the big showing from this cyclical adjustment in terms of the breeding herd, starts to show up more clearly in 2021.
“We’re looking at that year of a fed cattle market that’s up 3% to 4% year-over-year. That’s a pretty strong year-to-year change and a calf market that adds some more depth,” he said. “So, barring a short corn crop and maybe some other things going right… we look at 2021 being much better for cow/calf operations.”
Listen to Robb’s full analysis on today’s Beef Buzz, with Radio Oklahoma Ag Network Farm Director Ron Hays.
The Beef Buzz is a regular feature heard on radio stations around the region on the Radio Oklahoma Network and is a regular audio feature found on this website as well. Click on the LISTEN BAR below for today's show and check out our archives for older Beef Buzz shows covering the gamut of the beef cattle industry today.
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