OSU's Kim Anderson Talks about the October WASDE Report and Its Implications on Wheat PricesThu, 10 Oct 2019 18:03:29 CDT
In his weekly visit with SUNUP host Lyndall Stout this weekend, Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson talks about the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA.
“Let’s start with wheat in the United States,” Anderson said. “They lowered production just a little bit, they raised ending stocks. And the higher ending stocks is because they lowered the exports. In the world situation, they lowered production and raised ending stocks.”
Anderson says right after the WASDE report came out, wheat prices fell $.7/bu. He says the reason for this, is that analysts projected US ending stocks to be 1.015 billion bushels. But the USDA came out 28 million bushels higher than that. Then in the world ending stocks, the analysts had it at 10.5 billion bushels. And the USDA came in at 10.57 billion bushels.
“If you look at corn, analysts before this report were at 3.864 billion bushels,” he said. “The USDA just lowered those corn numbers to 3.779 billion bushels. And of course, their market didn’t particularly care for that, so corn prices are lower. Now in soybeans analysts and the USDA are relatively close, with the analysts at 3.583 billion bushels and the USDA at 3.55 billion bushels.”
Anderson says the December Kansas City contract held above $4.10/bu most of the week. But when the WASDE came out, the prices quickly dropped back down below that threshold. He thinks the December KC contract prices will stay in the range of $4.00/bu to $4.20/bu, with no hope that is will go any higher.
“In Oklahoma, we planted 720 thousand acres of cotton, and we plan to harvest about 550 of that,” he said. “77% of the cotton is reported to be mature, 1% of it has been harvested. Soybeans, we planted 520 thousand acres, and we are planning to harvest about 500 of those. 27% of the beans are ready for harvest, and we have harvested 1%. Corn, we planted 350 thousand acres, and we plan to harvest 305 of those. 90% of it is mature and ready, and we are about half way through that. And with sorghum, 215 thousand acres planted, with the intentions of harvesting 160. 63% of it is ready to be harvested, and we have 24% harvested.”
He says we are making progress on harvesting summer crops, but we are still behind where the market thinks we should be.
This week on SUNUP, we scout for fall armyworms in Blaine County with Tom Royer and get a wheat crop update from Amanda Silva.
- Then, in the Mesonet weather report, Wes Lee shows us how cooler air impacting soil temperatures. Gary McManus shows us where drought is receding across the state.
- Misha Manuchehri says there’s still time for wheat producers to apply herbicides for ryegrass. She also tells us about the research underway on terminating rescue grass.
- In Cow-Calf Corner, Glenn Selk explains how dressing percentage impacts sale prices.
- Kim Anderson has the latest information from the WASDE report.
- Roger Sahs has a reminder for producers to fill out the NASS Custom Rate Survey.
- In Food Whys, Darren Scott explains why there’s so much interest in ancient grains.
- Finally, we see what goes into creating award winning toy farm displays that feature the red dirt roads of Oklahoma.
Join us for SUNUP:
Saturday at 7:30 a.m.
Sunday at 6 a.m. on OETA-TV
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