Oklahoma Farm Report masthead graphic with wheat on the left and cattle on the right.
Howdy Neighbors!
Ron Hays, Director of Farm and Ranch Programming, Radio Oklahoma Ag Network  |  2401 Exchange Ave, Suite F, Oklahoma City, Ok 73108  |  (405) 601-9211

advertisements
   
    
   
   
   
   

Agricultural News


OSU's Dr. Derrell Peel Says a Slow Recovery Is Projected for U.S. And Global Economy

Mon, 06 Jul 2020 10:35:46 CDT

OSU's Dr. Derrell Peel Says a Slow Recovery Is Projected for U.S. And Global Economy Mondays, Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry. This analysis is a part of the weekly series known as the "Cow Calf Corner" published electronically by Dr. Peel and Dr. Glenn Selk. Today, Dr. Peel says a slow recovery is projected for U.S. and global economy


The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have devastating impacts on public health and the economies of the U.S. and many other countries. There is much uncertainty about the future impacts of COVID-19 but even in the best of circumstances, the economic impacts are enormous. Table 1 shows a range of estimates for changes in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020 and 2021. All of the estimates for 2020 are significantly worse than the 2.8 percent decrease in GDP in 2008, during the last recession.

The 2020 U.S. unemployment rate is forecast at 9.3 percent, replacing pre-COVID estimates of a continuation of the 3.5 percent rate from late 2019 . The Fed estimate for the 2021 unemployment rate is 6.5 percent, persisting at a 5.5 percent rate in 2022. The impact of unemployment and reduced income in the U.S. economy is likely to grow at some point as government support reduces or ends.

Like the pandemic, the economic impacts are global as well. The most recent projections from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) includes the following summary:

“The global economy is now experiencing the deepest recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s, with GDP declines of more than 20% and a surge in unemployment in many countries. Even in countries where containment measures have been relatively light, early data are already making clear that the economic and social costs of the pandemic will be large. Growth prospects depend on many factors, including how COVID-19 evolves, the duration of any shutdowns, the impact on activity, and the implementation of fiscal and monetary policy support. Uncertainty will likely prevail for an extended period.”

Likewise from the International Monetary Fund (IMF):

"Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. Overall, this would leave 2021 GDP some 6½ percentage points lower than in the pre-COVID-19 projections of January 2020.”

The OECD, with estimates for single-hit and double-hit (second COVID-19 outbreak) scenarios, state that, “In both scenarios, we won’t be back at 2019-Q4 level for at least two years”.

The magnitude of the impact on domestic and international beef demand is uncertain though certainly reduced from previous estimates. Beef demand will depend on a number of factors including; evolution and future impacts of COVID-19; type and duration of fiscal and monetary support; recovery of food service sector; rate of employment recovery; exchange rates; politics (including election year impacts, trade disputes, etc.) and others. There will be many challenges for many months and a continuing atmosphere of uncertainty.


https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20200610.pdf

WebReadyTM Powered by WireReady® NSI

 


Top Agricultural News

  • Friday, August 14, 2020 Market Wrap-Up with Justin Lewis  Fri, 14 Aug 2020 15:52:08 CDT
  • Oklahoma Grain Elevator Cash Bids as of 2:00 p.m. Friday, August 14  Fri, 14 Aug 2020 15:30:08 CDT
  • Rural Vet Practice and Beef Sustainability Webinar Series Begins  Fri, 14 Aug 2020 15:23:51 CDT
  • North American Meat Institute Announces Alliance Agreement with OSHA  Fri, 14 Aug 2020 13:55:38 CDT
  • Record U.S. Sorghum Sales to China Reported   Fri, 14 Aug 2020 13:49:51 CDT
  • Peterson, Group of Bipartisan Members of Congress Urge Enforcement of Dairy Provisions in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement  Fri, 14 Aug 2020 11:57:42 CDT
  • Enforcement of USMCA Dairy Provisions Key, Bipartisan Letter Urges Action  Fri, 14 Aug 2020 11:46:09 CDT
  • NCBA's Kent Bacus Explains Why We Need To Import Small Amounts Of Beef  Fri, 14 Aug 2020 11:44:06 CDT

  • More Headlines...

       

    Ron salutes our daily email sponsors!

    Oklahoma Ag Credit Oklahoma Farm Bureau National Livestock Credit Ag Mediation Program P&K Equipment Tulsa Farm Show AFR Insurance Stillwater Milling Oklahoma Cattlemen's Association KIS FUTURES, INC.

    Our Road to Rural Prosperity sponsors!

    Banc First OPSRC ORWA TPAOO TPAOO

    Search OklahomaFarmReport.com


       
       
    © 2008-2020 Oklahoma Farm Report
    Email Ron   |   Newsletter Signup   |    Current Spots   |    Program Links

    WebReady powered by WireReady® Inc.