Prospective Plantings and March 1 Grain Stocks reports Shows Corn, Soybean Acreage Below ExpectationsWed, 31 Mar 2021 15:08:54 CDT
USDA on Wednesday released its Prospective Plantings and March 1 Grain Stocks reports.
USDA expects farmer to plant 91.1 million acres (ma) of corn, below the low end of pre-report expectations, and 87.6 ma of soybeans, below the range of expectations.
Wheat acres, on the other hand, are expected to increase 5% to 46.4 ma, which is on the high end of analysts' estimates.
Corn acreage was pegged at 91.1 ma, up just 325,000 acres from 2020 planting, less than a 1% increase from last year. USDA's acreage came in below the lowest average analyst estimate released by Dow Jones. USDA stated that compared to 2020, corn planting would be up or unchanged in 24 of 48 states.
Soybean acres also came in below the pre-report range at 87.6 ma when the average estimate expected 90 ma. Still, soybean acres are forecast to be 5% higher than last year, 4.5 ma higher. USDA stated planting acres would be higher or unchanged in 23 of 29 states.
In overall principal crops, USDA reported 316.2 ma would be planted, up 6.1 ma from 2020.
USDA pegged all wheat planted acreage for 2021 at 46.4 ma, up 5% from last year, but still the fourth lowest all wheat planted area since recordkeeping began in 1919.
Of that, 33.1 ma are expected to be winter wheat, up 9% from last year and 3% above the agency's previous estimate. Hard red winter plantings should account for 23.2 ma, with soft red winter on 6.42 ma and white winter wheat on 3.48 ma.
Spring wheat acreage is expected to be trimmed to 11.7 ma, down 4% from last year. Hard red spring wheat is pegged at 10.9 ma, with durum dropping 9% from last year to 1.54 ma.
All cotton acreage for 2021 is estimated at 12 ma, down less than 1% from last year. Upland acreage is pegged at 11.9 ma, up slightly from 2020, and American Pima will pick up the rest, at 142,000 acres, down 30% from last year.
Sorghum acreage is expected to jump 18% this year, to 6.94 ma. That jump is driven by acreage increases in Colorado (11%), Kansas (20%), Texas (11%), Nebraska (54%), Oklahoma (25%) and South Dakota (19%).
MARCH 1 GRAIN STOCKS
Soybean stocks as of March 1 totaled 1.56 billion bushels (bb), 31% lower than at the same time last year and on par with the average pre-report estimate. On-farm stockpiles are estimated at 594 million bushels (mb), while off-farm supplies are pegged at 970 mb. Usage from December through February added up to 1.38 bb, up 39% from last year.
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 were reported at 7.7 bb -- the lowest in six years, down 3% from the stocks a year ago. USDA reported 4.04 bb were stored on farms, down 9% from last year. Off-farm stocks were pegged at 3.6 bb, up 5% from last year. The December 2020 to February 2021 usage or disappearance was reported at 3.59 bb, compared to 3.38 bb from the same time a year ago.
Wheat stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.31 bb, down 7% from last year. Of that, 284 mb are estimated to be on farm, down 16% from last year, with off-farm stocks at 1.03 bb, down 4% from last year. That puts wheat stock use from December 2020 through February 2021 at 388 mb, down 9% from the same period the previous year.
Producers surveyed across the United States intend to plant an estimated 91.1 million acres of corn in 2021, up less than 1% from last year, according to the Prospective Plantings report released today by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
Planted acreage intentions for corn are up or unchanged in 24 of the 48 estimating states. The largest increases are expected in the Dakotas, where producers intend to plant a combined 8.90 million acres, an increase of 2.00 million acres from 2020. Producers across most of the Corn Belt intend to plant fewer acres than last year. If realized, the planted area of corn in Idaho and Oregon will be the largest on record.
Soybean growers intend to plant 87.6 million acres in 2021, up 5% from last year. If realized, this will be the third highest planted acreage on record. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 23 of the 29 states estimated.
The Prospective Plantings report provides the first official, survey-based estimates of U.S. farmers’ 2021 planting intentions. NASS’s acreage estimates are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March from a sample of nearly 80,000 farm operators across the nation. Other key findings in the report are:
All wheat planted area for 2021 is estimated at 46.4 million acres, up 5% from 2020. This represents the fourth lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919.
Winter wheat planted area, at 33.1 million acres, is up 3% from the previous estimate and up 9% from last year. This is the seventh lowest planted acreage on record.
Area planted to other spring wheat for 2021 is expected to total 11.7 million acres, down 4% from 2020.
Durum wheat is expected to total 1.54 million acres for 2021, down 9% from last year.
All cotton planted area for 2021 is expected to total 12.0 million acres, less than 1% below last year.
Today, NASS also released the quarterly Grain Stocks report to provide estimates of on-farm and off-farm stocks as of March 1. Key findings in that report include:
Corn stocks totaled 7.70 billion bushels, down 3% from the same time last year. On-farm corn stocks were down 9% from a year ago, but off-farm stocks were up 5%.
Soybeans stored totaled 1.56 billion bushels, down 31% from March 1, 2020. On-farm soybean stocks were down 41% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks were down 22%.
All wheat stored totaled 1.31 billion bushels, down 7% from a year ago. On-farm all wheat stocks went down 16% from last year, while off-farm stocks went down 4%.
Durum wheat stored totaled 42.7 million bushels, down 17% from March 1, 2020. On-farm Durum stocks were down 4% from a year ago, while off-farm stocks of Durum wheat were down 28%.
The Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks, and all other NASS reports are available online at www.nass.usda.gov.
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