US Wheat Associates Weekly Harvest Report for July 20, 2021Fri, 30 Jul 2021 11:35:11 CDT
The U.S. winter wheat harvest is rapidly progressing in northern and Pacific Northwest regions with warm, dry conditions holding on. HRW crop conditions remain variable. Harvest of a larger SRW crop is all but complete and all samples have been tested. The Wheat Quality Council Hard Spring and Durum Tour saw crops that will have much lower than average yields but with promising quality. Winter SW harvest is moving ahead of normal. Durum conditions are slightly better than HRS but remain drought and heat stressed.
HARD RED WINTER
Crop Progress: The HRW harvest is rapidly moving toward the finish in South Dakota Nebraska, Wyoming and Montana.
HRW in the PNW is also at least 50% complete. Abandonment or baling poor HRW fields for livestock feed is happening in
very dry areas but no official estimate is available. USDAs current estimate of 2021/22 HRW production is 805 mil bu
(21.9 MMT), a 22% increase over last year.
Crop Conditions: The HRW fields left to harvest are drought stressedat best. Across the entire production region, farmer
thoughts are turning to planting and, except for Texas, Oklahoma and areas of Kansas, rain will be needed to generate
sufficient soil moisture for the next crop.
Weather: Dry, hot conditions across the HRW production area are expected over the next 10 days.
Wheat Data: There are now 411 samples in various stages of testing including a few from South Dakota and Montana. The
averages reflect composite numbers not weighted for production. Protein increased this week (11.6%) with samples from
drier areas. Test weight (60.6 lb/bu, 79.7 kg/hl) and TKW (30.4g) are down slightly this week. Average Falling Number this
week changed only 1 second 276 seconds and represents 271 of the 411 samples now in the lab.
SOFT RED WINTER
Crop Progress:Only areas producing SRW for domestic use in northern states remain to be harvested. USDA estimates
total 2021/22 production at 362 mil bu (9.9 MMT).
Weather: Most of the SRW production region continues to have adequate soil moisture with seeding likely to start by
Wheat Data: Falling number is similar to last years average with lower scores from Arkansas and North Carolina. Test
weight average is relatively unchanged from last year at 59.57 lb/bu. The TKW is good this year and higher than last year
and the crop grades No. 2 SRW again this year. The average vomitoxin on the composite samples from each area is 0.722
Flour Data: Bread volume and crumb grain are both down slightly this year. Average grain score in 2020 was 5.7 and this
year it is 4.6. Cookie w/t factor is up slightly in 2021 to 10.682. The highest w/t factor was in eastern Virginia, 11.53, and
the lowest was Kentucky at 10.06. Farinograph absorption is similar. In 2020 the absorption was 52.6 and this year it is
Crop Progress: The winter SW harvest pace picked up and likely exceeds official estimates of 35% in Idaho, 59% in Oregon
and 50% in Washington. Spring SW harvest is also progressing in Washington. USDA currently estimates total U.S. SW
winter production at 181 mil bu (4.9 MMT), which includes SW produced outside the PNW. Composite results from 102
samples now in various stages of testing show the current grade of No. 2 SW with protein of 11.3% (12% moisture basis)
above the 5-year average of 9.8. These results and others reflect the extreme heat and drought conditions.
Crop Conditions: The impact of the unrelenting drought on the 2021/22 SW winter and spring crops in the PNW is wellknown. Yields are down and industry sources expect more planted area will be abandoned as harvest progresses. Though
protein levels are up generally, there are still some lower protein counts being reported. For buyers, this will be a good
year to better understand SW protein performance verses protein levels; your local USW representative can help.
Weather: Extremely hot and dry conditions persisted across the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Growers are hoping for any
moisture ahead of seeding the next winter wheat crop.
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