Allendale's Rich Nelson says August WASDE shows Neutral for Soybeans, somewhat Bullish for Wheat and CornThu, 12 Aug 2021 14:49:33 CDT
The National Agricultural Statistics Service estimates a national average corn yield of 174.6 bushels per acre (bpa), which is down 4.9 bpa from July, toward the low end of pre-report expectations.
On soybeans, they expect yields to average 50 bpa, only .8 below their previous estimate and even with expectations.
USDA dropped global wheat ending stocks below analyst expectations, to 279.06 million metric tons (mmt), down from their 291.7-mmt estimate in July, based on decreased production from Russia, Canada and the U.S.
Associate Farm Director, KC Sheperd spoke with Allendale's Rich Nelson and he said this report is Neutral for Soybeans and somewhat bullish for Wheat and Corn, "It Certainly was a positive Reaction to what was a positive report. Now Whether or not this is a game changer and we are going to go on a new up trend, I can't quite get on board with that. I think this is positive, and the market did react, but we didn't really change the long-termn narrative enough to cause a clear up-trend at this time."
You can also access the full reports here:
-- Crop Production:
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
USDA lowered its yield estimate for corn by 4.9 bpa to 174.6 bpa. Production, using unchanged acreage estimates, is now forecast at 14.75 billion bushels (bb), down 415 million bushels (mb) from last month. Both came in toward the low end of expectations.
That resulted in lower ending stocks, as well as numerous changes to demand.
For new-crop 2021-21 marketing year, USDA puts ending stocks at 1.242 bb, which is down 190 mb but is about even with pre-report expectations. USDA increased beginning stocks 35 mb, resulting in overall supply of 15.89 bb.
USDA then cut feed and residual use by 100 mb, but bumped food, seed and industrial use by 10 mb. The result was a 90 mb reduction in use. Taking lower ending stocks into consideration, USDA increased the national average farm gate price 15 cent to $5.75 per bushel.
For the 2020-21 marketing year, USDA pegged ending stocks at 1.117 bb, in line with expectations.
Globally, USDA's forecast for 2021-22 world ending stocks came in at 284.63 mmt, 6.5 mmt lower than last month on declining production forecasts.
For old crop, changes were minor, with ending stocks creeping up by less than 1 mmt to 280.75 mmt. As for 2020-21 South American production, Brazilian production was pegged at 87 mmt, down from 93 mmt last month, and Argentina at 48.5 mmt, unchanged.
For new-crop production, USDA trimmed average yield nearly a bushel to 50 bpa, which dropped projected new-crop production to 4.339 bb. Both changes were within analysts' pre-report estimate range.
USDA boosted old-crop soybean ending stocks to 160 mb, on the high end of analyst estimates, based on lower 2020-21 crush and exports. These higher beginning stocks for the new-crop season were offset by a 66-mb drop in production and a 42-mb drop in imports. That meant that despite a 20-mb drop in exports, new-crop ending stocks were left unchanged from July at 155 mb.
U.S. farmgate prices for new-crop beans were also left unchanged from July at $13.70 per bushel.
Globally, old-crop soybean ending stocks were boosted 1.32 mmt to 92.82 mmt, slightly above analyst pre-report estimates. For the new growing season, ending stocks were also on the larger side, at 96.15 mmt, a 1.66-mmt increase from July. South American 2020-21 soybean production was pegged at 137 mmt for Brazil and 46 mmt for Argentina. China's imports for new-crop beans were trimmed slightly from 102 mmt to 101 mmt.
USDA dropped all-wheat total production for 2021-22 to 1.697 bb, a drop of nearly 50 mb, based primarily on reductions to hard red winter and soft white winter production. Overall wheat yield was trimmed 1.3 bushels from the previous forecast as well, to 44.5 bpa.
Of that, winter wheat production is forecast at 1.32 bb, down 3% from the July report but a 13% increase from last year. USDA pegged winter wheat average yield at 51.8 bpa, down 1.8 bpa from July, but slightly above last year.
Hard red winter production was trimmed 3% to 777 mb, while soft red winter was boosted 1% to 366 mb. White winter wheat production took a bigger hit, down 11% to 176 mb.
USDA also trimmed spring wheat production again, down 1% to 343 mb, a whopping 41% down from last year, due to prolonged drought in the Northern Plains. Spring wheat yield was pegged at 30.6 bpa, the lowest yield since 2002, if realized.
The agency dropped domestic ending stocks 38 mb to 627 mb, on the low end of pre-report estimates. That drop was based primarily on lowered yield and production, combined with a 10-mb drop in feed and residual use. U.S. farmgate prices for wheat were boosted 10 cents upward to $6.70 per bushel.
Globally, world ending stocks for wheat dropped below analyst expectations to 279.06 mmt, based on lower production for Russia (down 12.5 mmt), Canada (down 7.5 mmt) and the U.S.
Annual beef and pork production were both reduced in the August WASDE report with beef production listed at 27.87 billion pounds, down 33 million pounds from the July estimate. Pork production posted a much more significant adjustment with annual production falling 327 million pounds from the July report with a total annual 2021 production of 27.82 billion pounds. Steer prices gained underlying support, moving $2 per cwt higher from the July report, at $121.20 per cwt. Barrow and gilt prices were slightly changed from last month, increasing only $0.30 per cwt, to 69.70 per cwt. Annual 2022 prices were adjusted higher to $126 per cwt for steer values, compared to a previous $122 per cwt, while barrow and gilt prices were unchanged from last month's projection, but continue to focus on price weakness, with an average price for 2022 listed at $56 per cwt.
Beef ending stocks fell 10 million pounds from the July report with 640 million pounds of beef reported. Total use increased 90 million pounds at 27.75 billion pounds of beef. Pork ending stocks remained unchanged from July reports at 460 million pounds although total use fell 133 million pounds to 21.43 billion pounds. It is interesting to note that 2022 per capita beef demand is expected to fall 1.9 pounds per person in 2022, as the increased cost of beef may continue to impact overall consumer demand. Per capita pork consumption is expected to increase 0.7 pounds per person, offsetting some of the losses in beef demand. Broiler per capita demand is projected to increase 1 pound per person, while turkey demand expected to remain steady in the upcoming year.
The overall changes in beef and pork production, demand or price shifts is not expected to have a significant impact on short- or long-term price movements in either the cattle or hog markets. However, the aggressive adjustments in grain markets, which has posted aggressive market surges in both corn and soybean prices following the report, is having a significant impact in feeder cattle futures.
Click or tap below to hear all of Rich Nelson's comments on the WASDE numbers.
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