Agricultural News
OK Mesonet's First Freeze Of Fall Map Shows Earliest Possible Freeze in October
Thu, 23 Sep 2021 08:53:45 CDT
The Oklahoma Mesonet has compiled the earliest (10% chance), median (50% chance), and latest (90% chance) dates for our first freezes across Oklahoma, based on the 1991-2020 data.
The OK Mesonet has updated the potential first-freeze-of-fall maps with the newest normals from NCEI. These run from 1991-2020, so they're fresh with the latest climate happenings around the Southern Plains. We've plotted the dates for the earliest 10%, the median date (50%), and the latest 10%. In other words, the dates on the earliest 10% map indicate a 10% chance of a freeze happening on or BEFORE that date (or a 90% chance the first freeze would occur AFTER that date). The median date is obviously a 50% chance the first freeze would occur on or either before or after that date, and then the latest 10% shows the date on which you could expect a 10% chance that first freeze would occur on or AFTER the date displayed (or 90% chance on or BEFORE).
State Climatologist Gary McManus says Obviously those dates are looking from a distance. When you get closer, like for the earliest 10% maps, maybe we can start to push those dates forward a bit given the current and expected weather pattern? In other words, while these maps represent the percentages based on the normals, we have to start to take day-to-day weather into account as we approach the cool season. So Boise City has a 10% chance of a freeze by October 4, but maybe a bit later this year? At any rate, we're still a few weeks away for most of the state to see those freeze chances start to go up, but nothing would shock us this year.
To see all the latest Mesonet Early Freeze Maps, click here.
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