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Agricultural News

Allendale's Rich Nelson Says Soybeans were the Big Story for November WASDE Report

Tue, 09 Nov 2021 15:13:41 CST

Allendale's Rich Nelson Says Soybeans were the Big Story for November WASDE Report The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was released today. This was released with the normal companion report, Crop Production. The next change to US production numbers comes on the January 12 Annual Production Summary. Production estimates for today were derived from 6,800 farmer surveys as well as objective in-field analysis.

Associate Farm Director, KC Sheperd spoke with Allendale's Rich Nelson and he said there were certainly some things to point out, "As far as corn we did see a moderate increase in production with yields now a half bushel higher to 177.0. USDA did a moderate increase in corn for ethanol, so a minor change for the corn story.

Nelson said the big focus today was on Soybeans, "I think we were a bit surprised to see USDA did cut yields on this report by 0.3 bushels. So this is still a second highest yield ever here in the US, but 51.2 would be a little bit of a surprise here. And USDA's Net increase in ending stocks going from 320 to 340. It was under the trades average expectation of 363, so for this report on grains specifically, Corn you can call it a nuetral-ish report, and for soybeans, a little positive."

Wheat: Stocks were raised from 580 to 483 million bushels today. This was just over the 581 trade estimate (ALDL 595). There we no changes to production. USDA lowered imports on this report by 10, lowered food use by 2 and lowered exports by 15. US wheat sales have long been under USDA’s implied pace. As of last Thursday, we had sold 55% of their whole-year goal by October. That is under the 62% five year average. $7.60 is economic value for the winter wheat contracts, $10.00 for Minneapolis.

Corn: USDA estimated US corn ending stocks at 1.493 billion bushels, little changed from last month’s 1.500. This estimate was just over the 1.480 trade estimate (ALDL 1.355). Production was raised from 15.019 billion to 15.062. That was just over the 15.050 trade estimate (ALDL 15.072).

Soybeans: Ending stock estimates for soybeans were raised from 320 to now 340 million bushels. This was under the 362 trade estimate (ALDL 328). The surprise for soybeans was a lower revision for production, from 4.448 billion bushels last month to 4.425. As with corn, there were no changes for acreage on this report. Yields were lowered from 51.5 to 51.2 bpa. This is still a high yield, the second best of all time. On the demand side exports were lowered by 40 million bushels to 2.050. USDA suggested this was from reduced global import estimates and low US shipments through October.

You can also access the full reports here:

-- Crop Production:

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

To hear more premium Content from Allendale's Rich Nelson, including the WASDE and other Market Strategies & Analysis Go to Allendale-inc.com

To hear KC's complete conversation with Rich Nelson at Allendale, click or tap below..


right-click to download mp3


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