Agricultural News
Monday, December 6, 2021, Fire Situation Report
Mon, 06 Dec 2021 10:15:50 CST
Statewide Discussion: Warm and dry conditions last week enhanced curing of fuels pushed into seasonal dormancy by repetitive frost/freeze events and leaf-fall. As such, the amount of available fuels has greatly increased and composite fuel moisture is steadily declining. Fuel loads are driest in the western panhandle where current Energy Release Component (ERC) values have tapped the 90th percentile in a few locations while much of western Oklahoma registers around the 70 th percentile and 50th-70th central and east. ERC has a strong correlation to suppression difficulty or resistance to control, and values exceeding the 75th percentile generally translate into increased resistance to control when coupled with fire-effective weather patterns such as dry cold fronts. Storms last night resulted in no wide-spread wetting rains delivering only local amounts above 0.25" at a few sites in the northeast and southeast. The cold front that delivered meager rainfall in eastern Oklahoma also ushered in much cooler temperatures although they will be short-lived as another warmup will challenge some temperature records by late week. A weak cold front is expected on Tuesday with potential for another stronger front late week that will result in increased fire danger across much of Oklahoma with the highest indices in western Oklahoma. Again, the best opportunity for precipitation this week will be coupled with that stronger front and currently appears to focus precipitation chances southeast. The LaNina expectation through winter is delivering with warm and dry conditions overall.
Today: Stronger north winds this morning will begin to taper off around midday halting alignment of afternoon dryness and concerning winds. Additionally, cooler temperatures will serve to hold fine-dead fuel moisture from tapping critical values with 6% observations west, 7-8% elsewhere. This afternoon, the highest fire danger indices will reside in the southwest into south-central Oklahoma where temperatures in the upper-40?'s to near 50? under mostly clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values 21- 25% supporting fine-dead fuel moisture observations at 6%. Northerly winds will gradually lessen in intensity today to 10-18 mph this afternoon with some higher gusts. On fires that become established, rangeland fuels will support head fire rates of spread 111-175 ft./min. with flame lengths 9-11 ft.
Tuesday: A weak front will migrate into the Oklahoma Panhandle during the afternoon working through Oklahoma into the evening. Sky cover will also increase stalling development of low fine-dead fuel observations and wind speeds will remain below critical value. As such, moderated fire behavior is expected on any new wildfire.
Wednesday - Friday: A warming trend with temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal by Friday coupled with continued dry conditions in advance of a weekend cold front will drive increasing fire danger indices through the week. While no critical fire weather is expected, initial attack activity will likely increase. Initial attack efforts are expected to be successful with limited large fire potential. The highest fire danger will develop Friday and be focused on western Oklahoma where rates of fire spread will likely be 159-220 ft./min. with flame lengths 10-13 ft. in rangeland fuels. Brush fuels will support single and group tree torching although spotting distances will be limited to short range and ROS 47-110 ft./min.
Near-Term: Current near-term outlooks probabilities point strongly to above normal temperature and leaning toward below normal precipitation as we enter what is typically the driest period of the year in
Oklahoma. Burn Bans: Cimarron & Texas Counties.
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