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Monday, January 3, 2022, Fire Situation Report: Fire Danger Slightly Eases

Mon, 03 Jan 2022 10:33:17 CST

Monday, January 3, 2022, Fire Situation Report: Fire Danger Slightly Eases Statewide Discussion: New Year’s precipitation and cold temperatures calmed fire danger concerns in Oklahoma briefly. dew point temperatures in the teens and 20’s afternoon relative humidity values in the teens are expected. Dry air will continue to push east across Oklahoma facilitating receptive fine fuels although expected fire behavior should afford successful initial attack opportunities. Two frontal boundaries will move across Oklahoma this week resulting in considerable variation in temperatures, but the week ahead appears to be dry across the state with only a chance of snow in northern Oklahoma associated with a weather system moving in Wednesday night. No overly concerning fire weather is expected this week and initial attack activity is expected to be largely successfully with limited large fire potential.

Today: A cold start this morning with temperatures in the teens across most of Oklahoma, recent precipitation and good overnight moisture recovery will limit development of active burning conditions to a brief period in the afternoon. Clear skies, warming temperatures and a dry southerly breeze will serve to dry fuels today. Temperatures will range from 45? along the OK/AR border to the mid-50?’s west with afternoon relative humidity values 20-29% in the Panhandle and western counties 30-40% in the central and eastern regions. With clear skies, fine-dead fuel moisture values will register 6% west and 7% in central and eastern Oklahoma. Light, southerly winds this morning will gradually increase into the afternoon sustained 10-15 mph with gusts in the western counties 19-24 mph - lighter winds southeast. The highest fire danger today will be in the western and northern counties where separation from wetting precipitation has extended to 61-128 days. Fire behavior should afford very good opportunity for initial attack success with rangeland fuels exhibiting head fire rates of spread 78-101 ft/min with flame lengths 8-12 ft.

Tuesday: Ahead of a cold front pushing into the Oklahoma Panhandle in the afternoon progressing across the state, Increased fire danger will be present. Above normal temperatures, increasing/gusty winds and dormant fuels will encourage active fire behavior. Initial attack is expected to be primarily successful although large fire potential cannot be ruled out. Additionally, fire danger will develop across most of the state. Persistent dryness west will hold elevated fire danger indices in place, although the best alignment of fire environment factors will occur in across the northern half of the state. Fire spread potential in rangeland fuels will range from 110-170 ft/min.

Near Term: Outside of a slight chance of snow in some of the northern counties associated with a midweek frontal passage, dry conditions are on tap for the week. While significant fire activity is anticipated, above normal fire occurrence is expected. La Niña conditions continue to dominate the outlook with no apparent pattern change to halt building fire danger concerns in sight.

   

 

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